Is this a winning system?

27 July 2019

By Jerry Stickman

From Marty:

I think I have come up with a way to beat craps. I'm here for you to prove me right or wrong.

First I'll start with the fact that there's 6 bets that pay 30 to 1 on the craps table; 2, hard 4, hard 6, hard 8, hard 10 and 12. The minimum bet is $15 and the max is $500, since most casinos only pay out $15,000 max on one of these bets.

I have a betting strategy that allows me to go AT LEAST 128 rolls betting on any of the above mentioned bets. If I have a team of five other players with the same betting strategy, on the other bets, I think we can take $400/hour each on a good day, and lose a little under $15,000 on a bad day. Only one of us should lose that, the rest of the team will make up for that loss though. The odds of that loss are 2.64% per player but the odds of each roll hitting a hard way is 2.77% so I believe we have an edge here. Correct me if I'm wrong.

The good news is it has to roll SOMETHING! So, when you lose, another team member could win! I watched 100 rolls on YouTube and each of these bets came out at least once, one came up four times, resulting in a $2,500 profit for the team.

You start off betting $15 for 29 rolls then on the 30th roll you bet $20, until you're no longer profiting, then increase by $5, if $5 doesn't get you profiting you have to go up $10 or $20. You do this until you hit $500 per bet and right now I have that at 128 rolls. I know I can get that number up more, but don't want to put too much energy into it if I don't have to. If this works, I'd be more than willing to squeeze more rolls before we get to max bet to increase our chances of winning.

What do you think?

Hi Marty,

Interesting betting scheme here. As I understand what you are proposing, each of the six players on the team will bet a different one-way (or doubles) hop bet. Each of these bets has a one in 36 chance of appearing (out of the 36 possible dice outcomes, each of these appears only once).

With fair, random dice each player (and only that player) will win once every 36 rolls as the other players on that winning roll will be on other numbers. Each player will lose 35 times out of 36 rolls. Of course, these winning occurrences will not be evenly spaced, but over time, this is what they will average.

I am not sure what the percentages of 2.64 and 2.77 are based upon, but that does not matter.

Why?

The only number that really matters is the house edge. In the case on one-way/doubles bets the house pays only 30 to 1 on a bet that has only a 1 in 36 chance of winning. The house edge on the bets you suggest is a whopping 13.89%. Players making this bet will lose $13.89 out of every $100 wagered.

In a random game of craps, there will be times where certain numbers hit frequently and others times where these number will fail to appear as often as the math predicts. But it is a fact – proven over and over – that in the long run, the math of the game will prevail.

Your method could do very well for many sessions, but it could also do miserably. In a random game you never know. Craps players I know have played betting progressions on just the 12. After 20 or so rolls without a 12 showing they would start the betting progression. It worked fabulously for many sessions. Then there was a dearth of 12’s and they ended up losing thousands.

In the long run the method you suggest will lose – and lose big. While some so-called experts (accurately) say that you never play in the long run, in a random game, you can never be sure where you are in the short run. You could win. You could lose. But the more you play the closer you will get to the math of the game. In your scenario, the math is not pretty.

In order to have the best chance of winning, make the lowest house edge bets available – pass line, come, don’t pass or don’t come. Add maximum odds bet to these and you have a house edge well under one percent.

Another method – which takes considerable effort – is to develop a controlled throw. Winning in craps does not come easy.

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerry@aol.com.