I Can't Get a Royal

27 July 2024

By Jerry Stickman

From Stuart in Wyoming

Mr. Jerry “Stickman,”

Many of your articles are on video poker, so I thought I would ask you about a problem I seem to have.

I played video poker for many years. I play several times a year. I know the strategy pretty well and think I play with very few mistakes. I play jacks or better when I can find it and bonus poker when I can’t. If I can’t find either one of them, I play double bonus poker. I play at the quarter level and have enough cash to handle all that I play. I am not that worried about the return of the game for that reason.

My real issue is that I have yet to get a royal flush. Not once. Not ever.

My understanding is I should expect a royal once every approximately 40,000 hands or so. I know this is an average and it could be much longer – or shorter – but not once?

Am I playing the wrong games? I don’t see how. Am I playing on unfair machines? I don’t believe that is possible in Vegas.

What is wrong? Please help me out.

Stuart

Hi Stuart,

A royal flush is a very coveted thing in video poker. It is also quite rare. That (and the amount paid for hitting it) is what makes them so darned exciting.

Depending on the game you play, a royal flush should occur roughly once every 40,000 to 45,000 hands. That is a lot of hands. Assuming you play around 300 hands per hour which is a good, but not excessive, pace, it will take 133 to 150 hours to play that number of hands. At four hours per session that works out to between 33 and 38 sessions.

You mention that you have played “for many years.” You do not say how many sessions per year you play, how long the sessions average, nor roughly how many hands you play in an average session. So, let’s continue with the previous assumptions.

Depending on your level of play, it could easily take years before you play 40,000 to 45,000 hands. Those numbers are mathematical averages based on millions and millions of hands. These are random games. Royal flushes do not occur every 40,000 to 45,000 hands every time. It may take two, three, or more times that before a royal flush appears.

Several years ago, I played more than 50,000 video poker hands per year. During that time, I went two consecutive years without a single royal flush. Finally, after about 125,000 hands, the drought ended. While that was a very long time, there were other years where I hit several royals in a single year.

Never say “never,” Stuart. The games you are playing are fine. Eventually, your drought will also be broken and there will be more royals in your future. Have faith. Play a good game. Play with money reserved for video poker. Most of all, have fun. Your time will come.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com
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