Hop Bets and the Facts

24 March 2024

By Jerry Stickman

QUESTION: I used to play blackjack in the casino. I enjoyed it, but felt it lacked excitement. The players at the blackjack table tend to be either quiet or drunk. I recently tried playing craps. What a different game from blackjack! There are lots of different bets. In blackjack, the most a player can win is one and a half times the bet (and not even that on a 6-5 table).

I really like the bets on the 2, 3, 11, and 12. The 3 and 11 pay 15 to 1 and the 2 and 12 pay a fantastic 30 to 1. How can the casino make any money on these bets?

ANSWER: You are right about blackjack. You are also right about craps. There are lots of different bets. There can be a lot of excitement at a craps table also. You are also right that the 2 and 12 pay 30-to-1 and the 3 and 11 pay 15-to-1 in most casinos. This is a relatively large payout for a relatively small bet – and the casino loves people who make these bets!

Here are the facts about these bets.

I recently posted an article about the field bet. I will use some of the same charts to explain the bets you mentioned.

There are 36 possible combinations for two six-sided dice. Here is the breakdown of the resulting numbers with their combinations.

2 – one combination: 1-1
3 – two combinations: 1-2, 2-1
4 – three combinations: 1-3, 2-2, 3-1
5 – four combinations: 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1
6 – five combinations: 1-5, 2-4, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1
7 – six combinations: 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 6-1
8 – five combinations: 2-6, 3-5, 4-4, 5-3, 6-2
9 – four combinations: 3-6, 4-5, 5-4, 6-3
10 – three combinations:4-6, 5-5, 6-4
11 – two combinations: 5-6, 6-5
12 – one combination: 6-6

Winning number frequency:

2 1 – out of 36
3 2 – out of 36 or 1 out of 18
11 2 – out of 36 or 1 out of 18
12 1 – out of 36

Now consider what the casino is paying on a win versus the true odds of the number appearing.

3 or 11 – True odds are 17-to-1, Casino pays 15-to-1
2 or 12 – True odds are 35-to-1, Casino pays 30-to-1

The casinos pay significantly less that what the true odds dictate. How does that affect the house edges?

The casino edges on these bets are:

• 11.11 percent for the 3 or 11 and
• 13.89 percent for the 2 or 12

Put another way, for every $10 you bet on the:

• 3 or 11, the casino will collect $1.11
• 2 or 12, the casino will collect $1.39

Considering these are one-roll bets, you will lose big on these bets – and you will lose quickly as well.

As is true with so many things in life, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com