Hedging a "Lay 4" Bet

14 August 2012

By Jerry Stickman

Dear "Stickman":

I like to lay the 4 for $120 and the vig is $3 or $4. And $15 on a hard 4. I lose my lay the 4 bet and the $15 hard when a soft 4 is rolled. If I buy the 4 and lay the 4 for $120 and put $15 on a hard 4, if the soft 4 is rolled will I lose my lay of the 4 of $120 bet or will it stay on the table? Or do I have to not put the vig up?

Casey


Dear Casey,

When you lay the 4 for $120 you will win $60 minus the vig of $3-4 if a 7 appears before a 4. You will win $105 on the $15 bet on the hard 4 and lose the $120 lay bet on the 4 when a hard 4 is thrown. If a soft 4 is thrown you will lose both the lay bet on the 4 and the bet on the hard 4.
Now, if you also buy the 4 for $120, you will win $240 minus the vig if any 4 is thrown. However, I suspect that you are thinking of buying the 4 for $60 to win $120 minus the vig.

Each of the bets is treated as a separate bet totally independent of the other bets you have working. For example, if you have your three bets working and a soft 4 is thrown you will lose the lay bet on the 4 (it will be removed) and you will lose your bet on the hard 4 (it will be removed). You will be paid for the buy bet on the 4. You could then use the profits from that win to replace your other two bets. If you buy the 4 for $60, you will need to add the vig and the $15 for the hard 4. As you can see, the casino has an edge on each and every bet. Adding hedge bets only puts more money on the table for the house edge to work against.

In your example you will lose about 1.67 percent on your lay bet on the 4 if you pay the vig on a win only. By adding a buy bet on the 4 you will commit the additional amount of this bet to a house edge of about 1.67 percent. The bet on the hard 4 carries a house edge of 11.11 percent. This works out to a loss (over the long run) of 1.67 percent of $120 or about $2 on the lay of the 4, 1.67 percent of $60 or about $1 on the buy of the 4 and 11.11 percent of $15 or about $1.67 on the hard 4 for a total of $4.67 for all three bets.

If the vig is collected up front the percentages and amounts for laying and buying the 4 are 3.33 percent or $4.00 and $2.00 respectively. Your total loss in the long run including the hard 4 would be $7.67.

The bottom line is hedge bets do not work. They just put additional money at risk and subject to the house edge. If you are willing to risk $120, put that $120 on the lowest house edge bets possible. This means forgetting about the hard 4, and buying or laying the 4 if the vig is collected up front. Instead consider placing the 6 and/or 8 or better still placing a pass line bet with full odds that totals $120. The house edge on the 6 and 8 is 1.52 percent or about $1.82 on $120 bet. The house edge a $40 pass line bet with $80 odds is .61 percent or only 73 cents! You bankroll will last longer betting this way.

Best of luck in all your casino and life endeavors.