Estimating Video Poker Returns

9 March 2024

By Jerry Stickman

From Reggie:

Hello Stickman,

While I enjoy your articles and especially your video poker articles, I have an issue with something you say. You write the we should check the entire pay table and then get an app for our mobile phones or computers in order to know the return of video poker games. I do not play video poker that often and I don’t gamble that much on them. I don’t want to take the time and effort not to mention spending the money to get an app.

I guess my real question is, isn’t there a simple way to estimate the return of video poker games? I would like to get the most I reasonably can from my play, but it doesn’t have to be THE MOST.

I anxiously await your response.

Reggie

Hi Reggie,

Thank you for your comment about my articles.

You bring up a good point. I play often enough and long enough to warrant taking the time, effort, and money to hone my skills in order to take everything I legally can from the casinos. But, like you, not everyone feels that way. They enjoy playing video poker, but play infrequently and play for short periods of time. All the extra fuss is not worth the expected extra return.

Yes, Reggie, there are ways to estimate video poker returns without requiring an app for a phone or computer. It works for jacks or better based games such as Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, Double Bonus Poker, and Double-Double Bonus Poker.

It is simple, but not extremely simple. You must know a pay table starting point for a full house and a flush as well as the return for each different game. Once you know that, you can estimate the return by raising or lowering it due to changes in those starting points.

Hopefully, some examples will make it clear. I am using Jacks or Better, but it works for other jacks or better based games also.

Jacks or Better:

Pay table starting point:
Full House 9-for-1
Flush 6-for-1
Return: 99.54 percent

For every credit that the full house or flush is lower, the return is roughly 1.1 percent lower. If you find a game where they are higher (though this is very rare) you would raise the return by the same 1.1 percent. The table below shows the comparison of estimate to actual return for the jacks or better game.

Pay Table Estimate Actual
9/6 99.54% 99.54% (starting point)
9/5 98.44% 98.45%
8/6 98.44% 98.39%
8/5 97.34% 97.29%

If a game returns less than 98 percent, I do not play it, so I will not go farther, even though the estimate should work fine.

Other games starting points and returns are:

Bonus Poker – Full house: 8-for-1, Flush: 5-for-1, Return: 99.16 percent
Double Bonus Poker – Full house: 10-for-1, Flush: 7-for-1, Return: 100.17 percent
Double-Double Bonus – Full house: 10-for-1, Flush: 7-for-1, Return: 100.06 percent

There you have it. A simple way to estimate the returns of jacks or better based games.

Please keep in mind, however, the following cautions:

• A couple of decades or more ago, changes to pay tables on jacks or better based games were limited to the full house and flush. That is no longer the case. Any pay line could be changed, so be careful.

• This technique only works on jacks or better based games, not on deuces wild or other wild card games. Changes to any pay line has been then rule since these games were introduced.

• Even though this estimating technique works well, playing strategies can also change as pay tables change – and they often do. This may be okay with you if you do not care so much about return and just enjoy playing. But if you play a lot, learning the proper strategy for the exact game(s) and pay table(s) you are playing will be worth the cost.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com