Dice Pilot's Betting System

Recently I received a request to analyze a betting system from a Golden Touch dice control student.

Hi Stickman,

I just got back from Vegas this weekend with a successful trip playing with Mad Money, Section8, Rafter, Rough Roller and Dave DaPorker.. We all had rolls frequently in the teens all the way into the thirties. Mad money and I were having a cold beer at the Palms Pool ( ? ) and discussed a high exposure betting strategy.

My gambling bankroll can handle this exposure. We both have a sevens-to-rolls-ratio (SRR) of one 7 to between 9-10 rolls.

Once we are warmed up we place $6400 across ($1000 on the 4, 5, 9, and 10, $1200 on the 6 and 8). After the first hit on one of these numbers, we regress to green chips buying the 4/10 for $25 and placing the 6/8 for $30. We start an aggressive progression (take/hit) for all future rolls - taking down the first hit and pressing on the second hit of each number. We would then continue alternating between take and press. Mad Money tested this method using $640 across with good luck over the weekend. The table below shows an example of the progression.

Hit #	4/10		6/8
	Bet	Coll.	Bet	Coll.
0	25	-	30	-
1	25	49	30	35
2	50	24	60	5
3	50	98	60	70
4	100	48	120	10
5	100	195	120	140
6	200	95	240	20
etc.	etc.	etc.	etc.	etc.

Any comments on this method? We did have two immediate seven outs out of 14 attempts when we lost the entire exposure. Do any of you use this technique? Is there a way to plug this betting model into Smart Craps based on our Roll Recorder Program results? I have an SRR of one 7 for each 10.7 rolls. If you write a betting script for Smart Craps I would like to see results after waiting for the 5-count before placing the big bet. Also, can Smart Craps tell me when is the best time to put a big bet out for one roll? It may be the 3-8 count based on my roll data.

Thanks again for your comments and your excellent support.

Dice Pilot

Dice Pilot,

Your betting system is good in that you only place the best bets - bets with house edges of between 1.33 and 1.52 percent. By doing this you are giving yourself the best chance to take the most money from the casino. However on the big bet this is not true. You put $2000 - almost a third of your bankroll - on the 5 and 9. These bets have a four percent house edge. You would be money ahead to forget about the 5 and 9 on the big bet as you do after it hits and just bet the even numbers.

Putting out the big bet early adds to variance. You have a lot of money out there that could be wiped out in one roll. When you seven-out without hitting a number on your big bet, it will cause a big negative swing in your bankroll. On the other hand hitting one number and taking it down will cause a nice positive swing in your bankroll.

Now let's look at the simulations. I ran four simulations for you. Each simulation ran for 10,000,000 rounds. I used the hardway set for all the simulations because your rolls entered into Smart Craps show you have not passed ProTest 1 (dice on axis). The hardway set is the best set in this situation since SRR only measure the avoidance of the 7.

The first bet is $6400 across after waiting for the designated number of rolls. Once it hits your bets go to $110 on the even numbers and a "pull and press" betting scheme.

The simulation results are recapped in the table below.

Due to your SRR (Sevens to Rolls Ratio) of 1 to 10.7, you do indeed have an advantage. Your edge is an enormous 17%+ as is indicated by your very high SRR. It is virtually identical in any of the four scenarios: 5-count, 3, 6, 8 and roll delays. The Average Hand Length is 10.7 in all cases. Your longest hand in each case was 150 rolls! You have some great things to look forward to.

The Average Number of Bets per Hour is what you would expect - the longer you wait to place your first bet, the fewer bets you will make.

Since you have an advantage, the more you bet the more you make. The Average Win per Hour, Average Win per Hand and Average Win per Throw prove this out.

It is interesting to note that you do not reach table maximum on some bets - even with a 150-roll hand. To reach table maximum using the "pull and press" betting scheme, you need to hit the same number 17 times in a hand once you start the progression.

Also please note that even though you make more money by betting more (or more often), your swings in bankroll do not correlate. The lowest bankroll row in the table shows that large swings are possible and they are determined by bet timing. If I used a different seed number for the simulation, the lowest bankroll numbers could very well change and waiting six rolls would not necessarily result in the lowest bankroll.

There you have it. You have an edge. Betting more when you have an edge causes you to win more. The big bet adds to volatility. Be cautious of the bankroll swings. Make sure you warm up, are "on" and feel good before using this high risk betting model -- and --

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses be slow and tiny.