Comments on don't betting

14 September 2019

By Jerry Stickman

Jerry —

I read your article on craps betting on the "dark side"; I love betting against the crowd (but it’s really betting against the house). I usually bet the don't pass line; what do you think about hedging my $100.00 don't pass bet with a $6.00 eleven and a $15.00 three-way any seven on the come out?

I know I'm paying 20% insurance to protect my bet on the first roll, but it seems reasonable to me not to get wiped out on the first roll; also I'm fond of betting no 4, no 10 while hedging these bets with a $10 dollar hard 4 or 10; I know I only get half my bet if the shooter sevens out but I only lose with a 3, 1 or 6, 4 combination.

Stan

Dear Stan,

Thank you for your question.

I personally do not like betting contrary to the vast majority of players at the craps table. I also seem to get an extra surge of energy and focus when I am throwing the dice and someone is betting against my roll. Some of my most memorable occasions at the craps table have been sending don’t betters packing as I hit point after point and number after number.

I must admit, though, that there was a time when I would bet the don’t come. With a random roller throwing the dice – and after completing the five-count on the roll, I would bet three don’t come bets in succession. I had previously bet three come bets in succession but I didn’t like losing all three come bets on a come-out 7 by the shooter. By betting the don’t come I could only lose one bet at a time where I could win all three at once. I must admit, I always felt a little sheepish betting the don’t, and did so as inconspicuously as possible.

This was a long time ago. I no longer have any need to bet the don’t come, since on random rollers I now only bet one come bet – win or lose. When I am not shooting, and the shooter is not a controlled thrower, I want to have as little exposure as possible, so it is now only the one come bet.

Enough about me. Let’s look at your situation.

It is a fact in craps that the more you bet, the more you lose. Adding hedge bets to the original bet only increases the amount of your loss over time.

You may not lose the entire big bet when you hedge, but you will lose something more often. The only real exposure on a don’t come bet is on the come-out. You mention that you want to ease the loss of $100 with offsetting bets on the 7 and 11. You will lose these hedge bets more often than you win them – and you still may not win your big bet.

I hope that the phrase “not get wiped out” does not mean you are betting more than you can afford ($100) on the don’t pass line. If losing the $100 means so much to you, perhaps it would be better to reduce the bet to $50 or even $25.

My advice on the don’t pass line bet is to bet what you can easily afford to lose and forget about hedges that will only cause you to lose more in the long run.

Your “no 4 / no 10” scenario is very similar to the don’t pass line bet. The house edge on this bet is 3.03%. Over time, you will lose $3.03 for every $100 you bet. You will lose that on this bet regardless of any other bets you make.

The hard 4 or hard 10 bet has a house edge of 11.11 percent, meaning you will lose $11.11 for every $100 bet. And this is on top of the 3.03% you lose on the initial bet.

Unfortunately, Stan, this is similar to the old sales joke where the salesman say that by lowering the price to the point he is losing money he can make up the difference on volume. It just won’t happen.

The house edge is the house edge. It works on every bet on the craps table – with the exception of the odds bet where the house edge is on the base portion of the line or come bet. You can’t make up your losses by betting more – you can only lose more.

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerry@aol.com.