Chasing losses

20 May 2017

By Jerry Stickman

Dear Stickman:

I am trying very hard to become a better player in the casino. I have read some of your articles and several of Frank Scoblete’s books and articles. I only play the better games in blackjack. I only make better bets at craps, and I only play the better video poker games.

Sometimes I do OK, but other times I still lose big. I will lose hand after hand in blackjack. I lose pass line bet after pass line bet in craps. When I switch to don’t pass bets, I still lose bet after bet.

I know the math of the game says things have to even out at some point in time, so after I have lost many bets in a row, I sometimes bet more in order to recover the money I have lost. But I simply lose more most of the time.

If I have lost many bets in a row, I am due to win, but it seldom happens.

You seem to know what you are talking about. What am I doing wrong?

Bruce N

Dear Bruce,

I commend your efforts to improve your casino play. Reading articles and books by Frank Scoblete and his associates is a very good start. They really do know what they are talking about and make sure that the math backs up what they say. Playing only the best games and bets is the way to go, but there is more to it than that.

In the long run, decisions will tend to even out. The long run, however, is a very, very long time. If you are flipping a coin there is a 50% probability that it will come up heads on the first toss. If it has come up heads the last 10 times, what is the probability of heads coming up on the next flip of the coin?

Answer: 50% - no change. The coin has no memory.

Similarly, your chances of winning a particular bet the next time, does not change simply because you lost it several times in the past. Note that this is not necessarily the case while playing blackjack. As the cards are dealt, the composition of the remaining cards could change to favor the player (as more low cards than high cards are dealt) or the house (as more high cards than low cards are dealt). What you appear to be doing Bruce, is chasing your losses. This is very dangerous.

Besides playing the best games and bets, you need to have good discipline. The discipline to set up session bankrolls beforehand and the discipline to limit your play based on those session bankrolls.

Betting more money simply because you have not won for a while can be disastrous, as you may have experienced. Only bet more money when your advantage increases. If you do not do anything to improve your edge, for example, if you play basic strategy for blackjack, you should never increase your bet size as your edge is always the same.

Remember, the casino has the edge on every game they offer. They would not be in business if they did not. The more you play, the more you will lose – unless you properly count cards, control the dice or play only those slots that exhibit an advantage.

You are doing some of the right things. Now develop the discipline to forget about chasing losses. Your bankroll will notice the difference.

May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and small.


Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is the author of "Everything Casino Poker." You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerry@aol.com