Card Counting: Yes? or No?

22 September 2024

By Jerry Stickman

From Bill E. in Idaho

Mr. Stickman,

I recently became interested in casino gambling. I am looking for a game where I can win in the long run. I realize that there will be ups and downs, but I would very much like the trend to be upward.

I am good at math and my memory is better than most. My research shows the game of blackjack is potentially beatable. What is your take on studying hard to learn advanced card counting techniques to get an edge at the game?

Do you recommend it? Does it really work? Is it worth the effort?

I await your reply.

Bill E.
Idaho

Hi Bill,

Thousands – perhaps tens or hundreds of thousands – of gamblers have asked the same questions. Many have tried it. Some have succeeded. In fact, some have been so successful, they had movies made about them. Some have not.

It is true that with skillful card counting and judicious betting, a player can tilt the edge in favor of the player. This is proven by the math involved. Movies such as “Breaking Vegas” immortalize blackjack card counters who have succeeded.

When card counting techniques began first developing, casino blackjack games had rules which were quite liberal. At the time, there was no such thing as basic strategy. Casino employees were on the lookout for cheating such as switching cards, but card counting was not within their radar.

As basic strategy and card counting became more common, casino management noticed that something was afoot. They watched for telltale signs, for changes in play and betting that could tip them off. While not illegal in the United States, card counting is highly frowned upon. When mobs ran casinos, getting caught could mean a one-way trip into the desert.

Corporate-managed casinos developed ways to detect card counters. Card counters would then develop ways to foil the casinos techniques. And on it went.

Casinos started changing blackjack games to thwart card counters. At one time almost all blackjack was single deck that was dealt until the last or nearly the last card before reshuffling. These games were very susceptible to card counting.

Casinos took steps to combat the effects of card counting. They increased the number of decks, first to two decks, then four, six, and even eight. With more cards in the shoe, card counting was less effective.

The most effective section for card counting is near the end of the deck or shoe. Casinos began dealing fewer cards before reshuffling, causing a dramatic reduction in a card counter’s effectiveness.

Card counters could still tilt the advantage somewhat toward themselves, though not enough to make it worthwhile for the counters.

Casinos, being the corporate entities they are, wanted more. They made the favorable rules less favorable. During the last few years, the most dramatic rule change has a blackjack being paid 6-for-5 rather than the standard 3-for-2. This increases the house edge by roughly four times, depending on other rules.

In Las Vegas, casinos can have card counters removed from the casino and “trespassed” meaning should they return they are subject to arrest as a trespasser.

There is no such law in Atlantic City. Players cannot be ejected for card counting. There are other methods for derailing card counters. Since card counting depends on the history of the cards dealt, dealers can and will shuffle after every round, denying the card counter any hope of success.

That was a lot of information, Bill. The bottom line is, you could possibly get a slight tilt in the edge toward you, but the casino will still probably have the edge and you risk being trespassed. It is simply not worth the effort in today’s gambling environment.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com