Calculating the Odds Bet in Craps

1 July 2023

By Jerry Stickman

From Tom:

Jerry:
I have a point that concerns the fallacy of adjusting our vig calculation when taking odds.

Let’s exaggerate an example. Say we have a $10 line bet and $5 million in odds. The odds bet has NO vig, ergo ‘no money at risk.’ Over time one will break even on all odds bets. Also over time we will lose approximately $0.14 on our $10 bet.

It’s illogical (but all casinos want you to think this) to say we had $5,000,010 at risk, making our percentage loss real small.

Of course the exception is dice control, obviously then you want to get more money in action, because now your odds bet has a healthy positive percentage.

Tom from Mississippi


Hi Tom,

You are absolutely correct when you state that over time craps players lose approximately 14 cents for every $10 wagered on the pass line. You are also correct in stating that over time the odds bets will break even.

The statement that I have trouble with is “The odds bet has NO vig, ergo no ‘money at risk’.” Just because there is no vig doesn’t mean there is no money at risk.

With any casino game there are streaks – winning streaks and losing streaks. These streaks can be long or short. Winning streaks build the bankroll. Losing streaks reduce it.

You may be riding high after several wins in a row, your bankroll growing flush with newly won cash. What a great feeling it is!

However, the reverse also happens. You place bet after bet – and lose bet after bet. At times it seems you can do nothing right. No matter what you do, you lose.

This up and down roller-coaster ride is called variance or volatility. You will always have ups and downs in any casino game. These up and down cycles are inherent in any random game. The length of the variance is determined by randomness. There is nothing you can do about that. The amount of money at risk, however, impacts the severity of the variance.

Betting a small amount of money in any combination (on the pass line and as odds) reduces the dollar amount of the swing. Betting more money will turn those gentle rises and dips into hills and valleys. Betting still more money and you will experience giant mountain peaks and gaping chasms. The peaks are great fun, but the chasms can wipe you out.

So even though you will only lose about 14 cents for every $10 you bet on the pass line – regardless of the odds you place, the odds represent money at risk. They affect the severity of the ups and downs of your bankroll. Therefore, it is proper for the edge to drop as you increase the odds.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com