Betting Progression for Blackjack

8 July 2023

By Jerry Stickman

From Carrie:

Hi Stickman,

I’m playing around with a betting scheme for use at blackjack tables.

Blackjack is a random game even though the cards have “memory.” Since that’s true, I figure by raising my bet each time I lose I’ll eventually win and recover everything I lost.

I start with the table minimum bet. Every time I lose I raise my bet by what I just lost. I can’t believe nobody has ever thought of this before. As an expert, what do you think?

Carrie from Arkansas

Hi Carrie,

It sure does sound good, doesn’t it? But let’s look at it a bit more closely.

Here is a sample betting string and results. Assume a $10 table so each unit is $10.

Bet 1 unit – bankroll = -1
Lose hand

Bet 2 units – bankroll = -3 (-1 and -2)
Lose hand

Bet 4 units – bankroll = -7 (-3 and -4)

Win hand – paid 4 units plus original 4 units bet – bankroll = +1 (-7 and +8)

So far so good. You risked a total of $70 and won a total of $10.

Here’s another one.

Bet 1 unit – bankroll = -1
Lose hand

Bet 2 units – bankroll = -3 (-1 and -2)
Lose hand

Bet 4 units – bankroll = -7 (-3 and -4)
Lose hand

Bet 8 units – bankroll = -15 (-7 and -8)
Lose hand

Bet 16 units – bankroll = -31 (-15 and -16)

Win hand – paid 16 units plus original 15 units bet – bankroll = +1 (-15 and +16)

Okay, a little tense, but you won $10. You also risked $310 to win that $10.

Let’s continue the previous betting string by assuming you lost the 16-unit bet.

Bet 16 units – bankroll = -31 (-15 and -16)
Lose hand

Bet 32 units – bankroll = -63 (-31 and -32)
Lose hand

Try to bet 64 units, but the dealer points to the sign: Table Maximum Bet $500. You cannot bet more than $500 or 50 units.

What do you do?

The smartest move would have been to never have played this progression. The next best move would be to pack it in and leave. In just seven hands you lost $630 (63 units) – with no hopes of recovering it in the short term.

Casinos love betting systems. That is why they have limits.

As far as nobody else thinking of this idea – I have to believe a very high percentage of neophyte gamblers have tried this. In fact, when I first played blackjack in a casino, I had a betting system very similar to yours.

But mine was better! I tripled my bet each time I lost!

This was in the 1980’s when $1 single deck games were plentiful. I had basic strategy down cold. I brought what I thought was enough money - $250. I figured I would clean up.

Instead, I was cleaned out.

I lost six hands in a row on a $1 blackjack table at the Pioneer Club in downtown Las Vegas. I hit the table limit of $200 – and exhausted my bankroll. The smug look on the dealer’s face haunts me to this day.

I spent the next months learning everything I could about how to properly play casino games. Not just strategy, but money management and emotional effects as well. I did not return until I felt I knew the entire package.

You would be well advised to do the same.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com
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