A Streak Progression System at Craps

25 February 2024

By Jerry Stickman

QUESTION: I play craps almost exclusively when I am at a casino. Sometimes I win. On rare occasions I win a lot! Mostly I lose. I have tried various betting schemes to help me win (or lose less – lol).

One system I heard about involves betting on the 11 in the center of the table. It is a one roll bet that pays 15-to-1 if it is hit. Now, I know that there is a house edge on this bet, and on every craps bet lol, but what about this?

I know there are 36 possible results when two dice are thrown. Two of these are 11’s (the 5-6 and the 6-5). That means an 11 should show up once every 18 rolls. I also know the dice are random. The 11’s will not show up once every 18 rolls, but on average they will.

The system says to wait for a large number of rolls without an 11 showing, maybe 40 or 50 rolls. Then start a betting progression – first the minimum bet. If it wins, start the counting all over. If it loses, double the bet. Continue this until the 11 hits. It is a guaranteed win as far as I can tell.

What do you think?

ANSWER: There are numerous craps betting systems that employ progression betting. Some are up as you win but most – like the system you described – are up as you lose. They sound good on paper. They even seem logical. Let’s dig a bit deeper onto your up-as-you-lose progression betting scheme on proposition bets (those one-roll bets in the center of the craps table).

Assumptions:

• * Minimum proposition bet is $1.
• *Table Limit $1,000.
• *50 non-11 rolls before betting begins – slightly less than 54 which is three times the average frequency.

Losing Streak Details
Bet # Amt Total Loss

1 $1 $1
2 $2 $3
3 $4 $7
4 $8 $15
5 $16 $31
6 $32 $63
7 $64 $127
8 $128 $255
9 $256 $511
10 $512 $1023

After 10 rolls you are at the table limit. At this point in the progression, not only are you no longer able to double your bet, you have already lost $1,023.

There have been 64 rolls without an 11 showing. That is about three-and-a-half times the average appearance. Going this long without an 11 showing is something that happens more often that you would expect. Remember, there are also times when there are back-to-back 11’s, or two, three, or more 11’s in very few rolls. So going three to four times the average before an 11 appears is not that infrequent.

You could keep betting the table maximum of $1,000. That is, of course, assuming your bankroll is large enough to handle those bets. A win would net you $15,000 (assuming there is not a sign at the table that limits the aggregate win to something less than that amount). On your 24th losing bet the total loss would exceed $15,000 ($15,023 to be exact).

Note that 74 rolls without an 11 is just over four times the average appearance of once every 18 rolls. It can and does happen – and not all that infrequently.

This betting system may work well for a while – maybe even a long while. Ultimately, the player will hit one of the limits built into all casino games (bankroll size, table limits, etc.) and the loss would be huge.

There is another major problem with this betting system. Players using this system would be taking up a spot at the table without betting anything for a very long time. This player would stand out. If the table became busy, there could be pressure to bet or leave the table. If the table was slow, a very long time could be spent without playing at all.

This progression betting system is not for action players. It is not for players who want to blend in with others. Most importantly, it is not for players who have limited bankrolls.

All progression (on a loss) betting systems rely on a win within a reasonable number of bets. The win will be moderate. If the limit to betting such as bankroll size or table limits is hit, the loss is very large – so large that the loss may never be recovered.

As is true with so many things in life, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com