A question on a craps hop bet

28 June 2025

By Jerry Stickman

A question from Jill in Oregon

Hi Mr. Stickman.

I usually play the slots when in a casino, but recently I am watching players at the craps table. The game is much more exciting because there is so much going on. There are so many different bets that can be made. As I understand it, some of them are quite good and others are very bad.

A good friend of mine has been playing craps for a while. When I talked to her, she said there are ways to almost guarantee you are a winner. One method she mentioned was to make a certain one roll bet – the 7. Place this bet for $3 after counting seven rolls of a new shooter. When the bet wins (if it wins), take it down along with the win and wait for a new shooter. If the bet loses, add up the last two bets you made on this shooter and bet the 7 again using the new sum. She gave me this example. Bet $3. If it loses bet $3 again (3+0). If that bet loses, bet $6 (3+3). If that bet loses, bet $9 (6+3) and so on. Again, any time the bet wins, take it down along with the win.

It sounds to me that at some point in time, this bet has to win which will guarantee that you are a winner.

Is there something I am missing?

Jill in Oregon

Hi Jill,

Based on the $3 bet amount, I assume you are talking about a “hop 7” bet rather than the much higher house edge “Any 7” bet which pays just 4-to-1.

This is one of several very popular betting schemes that appear to be foolproof. As you intimated, you must be missing something because casinos would never allow a player to get an edge over them. Let’s take a look at what happens during this betting sequence.

The sequence has been around for centuries and is evident in many forms in nature. It is called the Fibonacci sequence. Look it up on the internet if you would like more information about it. The Fibonacci sequence as well as the Martingale sequence are the two most common betting progressions. Both are “up as you lose” progressions. The Martingale is much more aggressive, calling for the bet to double after each loss.

Promoters of either system are correct in saying that you will win using either of these progressions – provided two things are true.

The first is (and this is BIG) that you have a large enough bankroll to weather the losing streaks. This can become very substantial very quickly. Waiting for seven rolls before the betting starts helps reduce the size of the bets, but they can still get very sizable.

If the shooter throws just 10 additional numbers without a 7 (17 rolls in total), you will have lost $429. While 17 rolls without a 7 may seem unlikely, it is quite common. What if the shooter goes three more rolls without a 7? You will have lost nearly $2,000. Five more rolls (25 total) and you will have lost nearly $20,000. If he (or she) rolls just five more times without a 7, this system will cost you just over $225,000!

Let, for arguments sake, say that the money is not a problem. There is one more “gotcha” with this system. You knew that there is no way a casino would allow such a system to beat them, didn’t you? Why do you think there are table maximums in force for casino table games. It is to thwart progression system bettors. These maximums can range from $1,000 to $10,000 and sometimes higher.

With a table maximum of $10,000 and in the very possible situation of a shooter going 25 rolls without a 7 showing, this progression – starting at just $3 – will have cost $20,000 and the progression cannot continue. It is capped at $10,000.

Even with a virtually unlimited bankroll, the casino will get you in the long run. It may take a while, sometimes a long while. You will win smaller amounts many times, but that one time someone has a long roll, you will be wiped out.

When everything is averaged out, the casino will win the house edge times the total amount bet. Casinos are casinos. They will win.

Accept that fact and bet the low house edge bets. Your bankroll will thank you.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and tiny.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker! You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com