Studies show factors which cause teams to cover spread

22 May 2008

By Howard Schwartz

For more than two decades, Andy Iskoe of Las Vegas has been studying pro and college football teams -- performance and results -- to find factors that reflect why teams cover the spread. For the pros, Iskoe has looked at more than 5,000 games. In his college study, he used 12,000-game data. When he finishes the chore, he publishes the conclusions annually. The studies are unique, and I've been telling people about the wonderful time-saving and detailed works since last century. They're of course updated, and because there are always new bettors who haven't heard about them, I continue to review and recommend them as they arrive both for the information and the price, a remarkable value. The pro version, titled the 2008 Pro Football Statistical Pattern Report (17 pages, 8x11 stapled format), is followed by the 2008 College Football Statistical Pattern Report (16 pages, 8x11 stapled format). Each sells for $10. Iskoe offers charts, tables, situations, statistics and a methodology that ties them all together. (The disciplined, numbers-oriented player will benefit most by this.) He shows you year by year, in summary format (since 1988) how all teams in his study did straight up and against the spread and quickly moves to what he calls "the statistics that matter." One of the strongest situations (which has won money at an 80.4 percent clip) is "Teams that are able to rush for at least twice as many yards as they allow their opponent have a record vs. the line of l,451-354-50" in the past 20 years. Iskoe shows the bettor how his "weighted system" of points is to be considered. Sometimes the "frequency of occurrence" is rare, as: "Teams that rush for more than 200 yards and pass for more than 200 yards in the same game have a record vs. the line of 164-25-4 (86.8%)." He does point out although this might be "a very dominant performance" it has happened in less than four percent of games played since 1988. The college version has 17 angles, one more than the pro version. A sample: "Teams that commit at least three fewer turnovers in a game have a record vs. the line of 2379-491-34 (or 82.9 %)." Some of Iskoe's analysis on this angle includes: "It tends to indicate that there is much more than random luck when looking at turnovers. The good teams are able to create them on defense and avoid them on offense. Poor teams do the opposite." It might seem to be a little early to be reviewing football betting books and guides. But for those who want a head start on developing their own system, method, computer program and who work on beating the game year-round, it's never too early. The good part of it all is that you've got more than a solid month to study Iskoe's material and consider incorporating it into your present methodology.