Football betting angles aplenty with these three reference books

10 July 2008

By Howard Schwartz

There are bettors out there who truly believe history repeats itself -- that certain teams almost always dominate others sometimes in specific situations. Many years ago, before computers gained popularity, the dedicated, curious gambler did it the hard way -- game by game, spread-by-spread and meticulous hand-written notes about whether it was a home dog, road favorite, etc.

Early pioneers included the late Ernie Kaufman, a unique lady handicapper by the name of Barbara Nathan, and Gary Anderson. There may have been others -- forgive me if I omit their names. Starting in the mid-1980s, when totals and teasers became more popular, those angles too were added to the list of plays worth analyzing.

We now jump to the next century, eight years into the 21st, and we've got three interesting books to save you time and energy (with more to come in the next few weeks). They are:

NFL Teasers and Totals by Andy Iskoe (73 pages, 8x11 plastic spiralbound, $29.95). This volume focuses on 6-point teasers for the past six years, or each year since 2002. Let's look at the amazing Green Bay Packers -- this team did well in many teaser situations. As a home favorite for the past three years they covered in 11 of 14 chances and were 17-1 versus conference teams getting those extra six points. Indianapolis too has been a solid 11-1 since 2005 getting six points in a teaser situation against interconference teams.

Moving to totals, when Pittsburgh is a home favorite since 2005 they have gone over in 17 of 22 games, while the Vikings are 1-10-1 in their first four games of the season -- going under the total 10 times!

Maybe there's some logic or reasoning for all the unusual or out of whack results -- if you can provide logic or rationale and predict when it will happen again, you'll make some money in 2008. Meanwhile you can only look at the past and anticipate.

Iskoe provides more than two-dozen situations for readers and bettors to analyze. You'll also be able to see how the entire league has done in teasers and totals since 2002, a year at a time, in the last three years or last six years. Get this book now, before the season starts, to do your homework.

Bob Frederick has been analyzing sides and totals for more than two decades. His two books are now locked and loaded for handicappers. They are called the NFL Football Notebook Trends: Sides and Totals (74 pages, 8x11 paperbound, $34.95) and the College Football Trend Notebook (141 pages, paperbound, $34.95).

His trend books give what is called a "workout of previous matchups." For example, "Since 1998, the NY Jets show a record of 16-2-2 against the Miami Dolphins." But it's unique in that for each game you can see what the line was and the final score for each game. Too, Frederick saves you time in looking ahead, and tells you the Jets travel to Miami Sept. 7 and host the Dolphins Dec. 28, so you can see the opportunity for the next play between the two.

Sometimes a trend begins to "break down." In other words, the trend may start to corrode or fail for some reason, or become "choppy," meaning it's hot, then cold, then hot again. Sample, Jacksonville and Denver have gone over the total in six of their last eight meetings, but in 2004 and 2005 they went under. Maybe the streak of overs will begin again, maybe not. They'll meet next Oct. 12.

The book contains 156 winning trends hitting at a 70 percent or better efficiency level.

His college book follows the same format. Example, Southern Mississippi is 15-4 against the spreads against Memphis since 1979. Yet in two seasons, 2005 and 2007, Southern Mississippi failed to cover. Memphis has improved or was underrated, we assume.

This book contains 297 winning trends, also winning at a 70 percent or better rate.

Frederick has done the work for you. If you're entering a contest, need some quick winning angles or want to be an "instant expert," you just go right to the book, flip to the team or matchup and you're in business. I believe a few sports services may have piggybacked on Frederick's research over the years.

The exhibition season is almost upon us and regular-season action is not far behind. Get a running start with three fine reference guides.