What the edge at craps actually means

Too many dice controllers think that if you set the dice perfectly, aim them perfectly, throw them perfectly, spin them perfectly then the result will be what you want it to be — perfect.

Unfortunately, that is not true.

A perfect starting throw (most dice controllers do not have perfect starting throws but let's pretend) will not end up perfect when the entire throw is finished.

When those dice leave your hand little imperfections are created even in the perfect throw — those dice usually split somewhat in the air — they are not glued together any more. You see this almost all the time with almost all controlled throws.

Then the dice hit the table which takes a great deal of your perfection away. Then they hit the back wall where much more of the perfection is lost. Then they bounce once or twice or three times after hitting the back wall. Your perfection will be eaten away some more.

Then they land on the layout. Your total perfection is almost totally gone. Now you have increments of perfection in the results — or, to make this simple, you have an imperfect result which still shows some control over the outcome. A hard way setter usually doesn't throw the hard ways all the time. The 3-V setter doesn't always throw a 6 or 8.

The best of our Golden Touch Craps dice controllers have double-digit edges, when all is said and done. SmartCraps shows us this — brutally I might add. So what does this all mean in terms of you making money in the long run of controlled shooting at craps?

Let us take someone with a gigantic edge — say 10%. That means for every $100 he bets, he will win on average 10 dollars. That means many of his throws lose him money as you can't bet a hundred dollars and win 10 dollars — that's not the craps payout scheme.

You will win some throws and lose many more throws but you can only lose the money you have on the table — no more — but you can win a hell of a lot more money than that on your good throws. Dice controllers will have many more monster rolls than will normal random shooters.

The dice controller is in a long run game where his skill alters the statistics of the game to favor him. But it does not alter the statistics enough to make any thrower infallible. That's not how it goes.

When I wrote about the AC disaster many of us had in our high roller room, too many GTCers jumped to the conclusion that our throws must have been off. They weren't. I looked at the throws and they were fine. Dominator looked at the throws and they were fine. Other instructors looked at the throws and they were fine.

So what happened? Nothing, really. There are no perfect throws and we hit a negative valley for a few days. Yes, there were winning rolls in all of this but not enough to make the week successful. That doesn't mean the throws were not good — or great, as some were.

When you have a long winning streak you don't think you will ever have a losing day. A trip to Vegas last year saw me winning on 12 straight days. My throws were no better or worse than my throws in AC.

So why did I win one week and lose another week?

No throw ends up perfectly. You will have swings of good days and bad and often there is nothing wrong with your throw.

Now that is not to say that often the throw is so far from perfection that by the time it lands it is really random. That is something that has to be worked on. That is why we practice.

Yes, we aim for perfection but there isn't one dice controller, even the elite, who actually get perfection. How often have you seen what you thought was the perfect shot end in a seven?

Many times.

That's just the way it is. You "see" what you think is perfection but the craps table doesn't give us that perfection very often, if at all.