What do you think of these craps strategies?

The following letter is from Michigan Mike and since it has several questions I have decided to answer them as they are given. -- Frank

Dear Mr. Scoblete,

Where do I begin? I hope you are doing well. I have been an admirer of the game of craps since 1991,and have appreciated your first craps book over the years, never reading it all at once, just a chapter here and there, bits and pieces at a time. With all do respect, I learned the game from a friend, and will eventually do a straight read through, however, I have not read an entire book since I graduated from college in 1988. That year, I read my entire Asian Religion textbook the night before my final exam and did get a B for the course. To date, I have very little knowledge of Asian Religion, but do have exceptional knowledge of craps (or at least perceive that I have exceptional knowledge of craps).

Start reading books, right now (well, at the very least, my books). A brain is a terrible thing to waste, as the old commercial goes.

I have had many successful craps outings in the past, enough stories and crazy characters to write about; however, life of course came in the way of fun and craps, with job/career, marriage, children, divorce (ouch, that one was a doozie), child support, or the divorced dad story, and the poster child for divorce. The divorce had nothing to do with gambling, as a matter of fact, I didn't play craps much during my marriage, just different choices people make during the cruise ship of life. You can control what you do, just not what other people do.

Having been through a divorce myself many, many years ago, I know how awful that can be. It sometimes feels like the ultimate seven-out.

Now that a casino has opened close to home, the old flame has been rekindled, except I am on “The Child Support Limited Bankroll” so I have to be careful. The 5-Count is by far one of the best tools to use at the table, and now I have some interesting strategies that I would like your feedback on.

The 5-Count will eliminate 57 percent of the random rolls. For Golden Touch controlled shooters, it is a major weapon in our arsenal.

EX. 1 If you are waiting for the 5-Count, why not put your bet on the don't pass, and hedge with an any seven bet to offset? Once the 5-Count hits, you can pick up the don't, then place the six and eight (most people at the table don't even realize that you are even using the don't), and continue on the pass line. If the point is hit, play the any craps to offset the pass line bet. Yet you make money during the horrendous roles of seven-out in less than the 5-Count on the don't, instead of just buying time at the table.

The best way to understand how the house edge eats away at your bankroll is to analyze each bet separately, as if each bet were being made by different players (in fact, each bet you make is indeed a different game against the casino, even if all those bets are made at the same time).

So let us say you are a $10 "line" bettor. Before the 5-Count, you decide you want to go up on the don't pass. You put your $10 down. It is that very first roll where the house establishes its edge over you. You only win three times (2, 3), push one time (12) and lose eight times (six times on the 7; two times on the 11). So using the don't pass before the 5-Count is completed negates the positive effect of the 5-Count. The house has its edge over you and that edge is about 1.36 percent or a loss of about 14 cents.

Now, the point is hit and you decide to throw out an any craps to "protect" your line bet. The edge on any craps will range between 5.56 percent and 11.11 percent, depending on how the bet is paid off. So you want to protect your pass line bet and you bet two dollars on the any craps. As a one-roll bet, you will lose between 11 cents and 22 cents every time you make this bet. Instead of protecting your pass line bet, you are merely adding losses to your bankroll. Your pass line bet doesn't need any protection on the come-out roll as it has eight ways to win and only four ways to lose. Why throw out more losing money?

You are much, much better buying time at the table than wasting money on extra bets.

EX. 2 Play don't, hedge with any seven bet, pick up the don't if the point is a 6 or 8, after the five count, place the 6 and the 8 (pass line/odds whichever one is point). If the point is 5, 9, 4, 10, leave the don't, place and take two hits on the 6 or 8, then bring them down, wait for 7 to win on your don't. If a point is hit (after the 5-count, of course), hedge pass line with any craps bet and continue on with hot roll playing point, plus placing the 6 and 8. The pass line bet, hedged with an “any craps 7-1 bet” has really worked well for me. It is amazing how many times 2, 3, 12, 7, 11 show up on the come out and I am guaranteed to win no matter which one shows up. I'm only on the pass once the 5-count is complete, of course.

Again, playing the don't costs you 14 cents on a $10 wager. Throwing an any seven bet out there now adds to your overall loss since the bet comes in with a whopping 16.67 percent house edge. To "protect" your don't pass bet, you will have to bet $3 on the any seven and that will cost you (hold onto your hat) 50 cents each time you make the bet. A true waste of your money. Throwing out a "whirl" bet on the 2, 3, 7, 11 and 12 will come in with a house edge of 13.33. So you bet $5 and your expected loss is about 67 cents.

Now your thought that a hot roll will continue is a total misunderstanding of the real world of craps. There had been hot rolls but there is no future guarantee the rolls will continue to be hot and there is also no guarantee that the rolls will not continue to be hot. There is no predictive value in a random game except this: Going off numbers will lose you less, so always feel free to go off numbers on random rollers.

I ask you this: Why add so many losses to your play? Your strategy is doing just that.

These strategies don't use the come bet as a tool, but why wait when you can place the 6 and 8 after the 5-count? With the 6 and 8 placed, I am now in the power position.

The placing of the 6 and 8 are relatively good bets, but they are not as good as come bets. You place $12 on the 6 and $12 on the 8. The house edge is 1.52 percent, so your loss on that $24 wagered will be about 36 cents. A $10 come bet's expected loss is 14 cents --- a big difference. Sadly, you must bet in multiples of $6 for the placing of the 6 and 8 but you do not have to do that with the come bet.

So, instead of being in a "power position," your strategy just loses you more money.

I know it takes money to make money, but I did buy your book and would be extremely grateful to receive any feedback that you are able to offer. Fortunately, I have enjoyed the results of your book more often than not, and am humble knowing that we all can learn something new each day.

Let me recommend my newest and most complete work on craps, Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!

Sincerely in the sport of craps,
Michigan Mike

Michigan Mike, I just put you on my private website for 30 days free of charge at www.goldentouchcraps.com. You will get another e-mail with your username and password. These you can change if you like. Should you not receive it, check your spam file.

Please feel free to post. We have over 5,000 members and the conversations are great. Any future questions will be answered by our instructors and elite players on those message boards.

Enjoy!

Frank Scoblete