What do you think of my craps hedge?

Hey, Frank,

Love the articles.

I just want to get your opinion on a betting strategy I have been using lately at the tables. I start by placing a don't pass bet before the come out roll. Then, when a point is established, I place the six and eight. If the six or eight hits I take my other place bet down and lay odds on my don't pass bet. If the shooter sevens out, I lose my place bets but still get paid on my don't pass bet. If the point is hit, I lose my don't pass bet but keep my money on my place bets for the next round.

I like playing this way because even though I'm playing the don't pass (which I personally feel comfortable doing) I'm still rooting for a six or eight to come up first so I'm not on the darkside all the time. What are your thoughts about playing this way?

Keith

Dear Keith:

You are just giving the casino more money betting this way --- although all these bets come in with a very low house edge and that's good.

The way to look at hedging is not to try to combine all the bets and do the figuring that you did. That is the misuse of logic, a dangerous thing in gambling. Take each bet separately and figure what the house will win from you in the long run. And here goes:

Let us say you are betting $10 on the don't pass line. Your expectation is to lose about 14 cents every time you place this bet. Keep in mind the casino hammers you the very first time you place the don't into the game by winning eight times and only losing three times. That's where the edge comes from on the don't end.

So now you are down 14 cents.

If you place the 6 and place the 8 for $12, you can expect to lose about 18 cents on each, so your loss is 36 cents.

Combine the two expected losses and you are down 50 cents each time you bet this way. My advice is to dump one of the other of these ends of your hedging to cut that house edge down.

Anyway that is my opinion.

For your great letter, I am giving you a free one-week subscription to my private, members-only web site at www.goldentouchcraps.com. We have over 5,000 members on this private site and the conversations are terrific.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank Scoblete