Two dice having a history

12 November 2013

By Frank Scoblete

FROM LAWRENCE: I like to read various websites including your website here and at www.frankscoblete.com. I think you and your writers have the best information in the business. One website I read has a writer who said that the dice don’t have a memory but they have a history. He then says you can bet that history, although he doesn’t say it exactly in those words. I want to know what he means by this. Isn’t it just a typical trend system if you are betting the history of the dice? You find out what hit and then you bet accordingly. Am I missing something here?

FRANK RESPONDS: You are not missing a thing. The writer is right about the dice having a history. Things did happen in the past, often things we can recall. Certainly this is true in gambling as all of us at the table probably know what happened on the last throws. So that statement is correct. All random games have a history; all things in existence (as far as I know) have some kind of history, so that statement is not profound but it is true. Sometimes true statements are thought to be profound by the people making those statements.

However, once that mundane statement is out there, to use such true wording to structure a trend betting system at a random game such as craps is the height of ploppiness. Call it what you will, but in a random game past trends have no effect on future trends. If the 5 has shown three times in a row that does not make it more likely to appear a fourth time. Here the math says the 5 comes up four times every 36 rolls. The odds of the 5 coming up on the next roll are 8 to 1. (The probability is 1 in 9.)

Keep in mind that many gambling writers are gamblers. By that I mean they buy into the silly notions that trends in randomness can be indicators of the future. Some will even recommend bets that have extremely high house edges such as Big Red (the seven). They can’t seem to get the idea that their superstitions are just that – merely superstitions. You can know the probabilities, yes; but those probabilities are the underlying mathematics of the game.

We can also add the word “tracking” to this discussion. Many players and gambling writers will recommend that you watch what is happening at a table in order to track what will happen at that table. In a random game such a method is also meaningless. Tracking is probably one of, if not the most commonly used method of deciding what to bet at a random game. Again, it has no bearing on anything. Any gambling writer who recommends tracking randomness as if such tracking can give you an accurate impression of future events to bet on at craps is not helping you one bit.

It is understandable why we believe in patterns repeating themselves. In many aspects of life such things actually do happen. If you are in an area where there are lions and a friend of yours just got eaten on a certain path, it would make sense to presume that you could be the next meal if you walk on that path. Thus, you’d avoid that area.

The best advice I can give anyone playing a random game is to make low house-edge bets and play slowly. The house edge coupled with the speed of the game are probably the two things you should consider before you bet your hard-earned money.

I am sending you a copy of my book "The Virgin Kiss" for your letter.


Join Frank on his website at www.frankscoblete.com or on his Facebook page at www.facebook.com/frankscoblete.