Trends, trends and more trends

30 April 2013

By Frank Scoblete

Dear Frank:

Hi just wanted to give my two cents. I am 45 and have been gambling since I was 7. Craps, poker and sports betting are my thing. I have never read a book on gambling until recently. My daughter gave me "Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!" as a present and I read it last night. I thought it was a very good book even though I don't buy into the whole dice control theory.

I have a dice table at home and will say that I have tried different control techniques. I may just be terrible at it but either way I think it's a concept at best that 99 percent of the people out there will never grasp. Anyway the one statement about a third of the way through the book just didn't sit right with me. To say there are no such things as trends on a craps table or in gambling has not been my experience. I am not a math person and it seems that you are all about the math. You see every roll as having the same odds as the previous roll or the next. I do agree. Looking back at past results like no one has made a point in an hour has no bearing mathematically on what will happen next. I agree.

But when I walk in to my casino and watch a table for a half hour and it's nothing but point seven out, I play the "don't." I will play the "don't" until someone makes two points on me. I believe in trends and I believe they dominate in gambling. I know you must have seen many a table in your career where no one can make a point for hours on end. Just the same as you see tables banging out point after point after point. I understand that the math will play out in the long run but come on how can you deny such a thing as a table being hot or cold. You have to see it almost every day.

I play 2-3 times a week and trends are everywhere. Anyway I thought the book was an interesting read.

Thanks much
Jeff

Dear Jeff:

In my 25 years of gambling (I started much later than at seven years old!) I have seen trends that have been unbelievable. I never said that there were no trends in gambling. There are all kinds of trends. But none of these trends are predictable. You can't bank on them going into the future.

In randomness there are always trends, some so pronounced they knock your block off, but no matter how pronounced from one decision to the next you just can't tell if the trend will continue. That's what I mean by "no trends," the predictability just isn't there. If it was no casino could exist since a majority of the players are trend bettors of some kind.

Oh, and there is no such thing as a "hot" or "cold" table. There is no present in the game and the future is yet to come. There WAS a hot or cold table but again such is not predictable for the future.

Controlled shooting is another story entirely. Rather than try to convince you that such is true, there is an easy way to see if you can control the dice. You can work out your SRR (seven-to-rolls-ratio) to see if you are reducing the appearance of the seven. Over thousands of rolls if you note a decrease of the seven than you are controlling the dice. You need to use the Hardway set to be able to see this.

The next -- and best -- test comes from the software program SmartCraps which tests your ability to keep the dice on axis. If you pass the three tests in this program you have a strong edge over the house. If dice control can be tested and proven by a dice controller then it certainly exists.

I am sending you a copy of my book "The Virgin Kiss" for publishing your letter.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank

Frank Scoblete's new book is "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker."