The Oracle at Odds - Part 5

This is the age of lists -- the top 100 movies of all time, the top 100 books of the 20th Century, the top 100 colleges for academic excellence or bargains or partying, and the top 100 women former President Bill Clinton scored with; plus all those weekly top 10 this list, and top 10 that list and top 10 those other things list. In the interests of keeping up with the list makers as well as the (Dow) Joneses, I decided to list the top 60 questions I am asked whenever I give talks about casino gambling. My list is in no particular order of importance, but these are the most-asked questions of yours truly and the answers that I give when I'm asked them. All value judgments are mine. So if I say this is the best thing, that is just my not-so-humble opinion. Of course, in my opinion my opinion is the correct opinion as today I assume my new identity as The Oracle at Odds -- Nostragamus! Ask and it shall be answered!

21. What makes you believe that some people might be capable of physically altering the game of craps?

First, it makes sense that such a thing might exist. It would also explain why the Captain's 5-Count has worked for him for some 20 years now. The Captain knows that if you bet on every shooter at craps you will lose -- because that house edge, even on the best bets, will grind you down. Most shooters seven-out rather quickly as anyone who has ever played craps for any extended period of time has experienced. But which shooters should you risk your money on? The 5-Count is the way to select the shooters to risk money on. I think the reason the Captain, myself, and the many people who have written to me to tell me of their success with the 5-Count have had that success partially due to the fact that some of the shooters we risk our money on are actually what the Captain calls "rhythmic rollers." They are changing the math of the game by controlling the throw to a small extent. The 5-Count eliminates the bad shooters -- the ones you lose your money on -- and positions you to, hopefully, be there for the good shooters a small percentage of which are these rhythmic rollers.

22. So you think the 5-Count guarantees that you will win at craps in the long run?

No. Some people have written to me to tell me that while using the 5-Count has decreased their losses markedly (after all you are reducing your exposure to the house edge by using it), they are still behind after extended play. Of course, I have had blackjack card counters tell me the same thing -- they are still down after extended play even with a mathematical edge. But if you want to know what I believe, here it is: I would never ever play craps any other way than with the Captain's 5-Count, and making the smallest house-edge bets. I want the best chance to take home some money at craps tonight and a way to reduce my potential losses over time and keep my level of comps the same. The Captain's methods give me that.

23. How can a player have a mathematical edge and still lose?

Easy. Let's flip a coin. I am going to give you an approximately one percent edge over the casino -- the same kind of edge that most blackjack card counters might have. You get to call the flip. Every time you win, you will be paid one dollar and two cents. Every time you lose, you will give up one dollar. The math shows us plainly that you will theoretically win in the long run because flipping a coin is a 50-50 proposition and you're getting paid more for a win than you are losing for a loss. So in 200 flips, you theoretically win 100 and lose 100 and come out ahead by 200 pennies or two dollars. Now, start flipping a real coin and start betting and keep track of it on paper. Do it right now and then come back and read the rest of this. Go ahead. Do it. Surprised aren't you? Some of you went on a winning streak that made you a nice chunk of change but some of you started to lose and by the time you got tired of flipping that coin and keeping track of your wins and losses, you were down a pretty penny.

24. But if I played long enough I would have to win, right?

Yes, if you didn't go broke first. We're going to flip a coin again with the same stipulations as above. But this time, you have only four dollars to play with and your opponent has, oh, $10,000. Don't bother going off and doing the experiment -- you are going to get wiped out even with your one percent edge. Why? Because your bankroll can't sustain the fluctuations of probability inherent in a gambling game. That's a fancy way of saying you don't have enough money to weather the bad streaks that will inevitably come your way. You have the edge but that edge is only mathematical. In the real world the guy with the $10,000 against your four dollars has the real edge.

25. What is the best show you ever saw in Las Vegas?

Dennis Rodman playing craps at the Mirage before he was kicked out.