Roulette Signatures - Part 2, Finding Possible Signatures

Finding Possible Signatures

In any series of decisions, it is easy to find the "average" distance of a dealer's spins from decision to decision. Just add up the distance of each spin and divide by the total number of spins. Unfortunately, this is not the same as finding a signature. What we want to know is if the dealer's average is within the confines of, say, one-third of the wheel. That is to say, will the dealer spin the ball in such a way that it tends to land within a nine to 12 pocket grouping consistently?

Looking at the double-zero roulette wheel, let us say that on spin number one the dealer picks the ball up from the 00 pocket and spins it so that it winds up in the 12 pocket, five pockets away. On his next spin, he picks the ball up from the 12 pocket and spins it so that it lands in the 6 pocket, five pockets away from the 12. Finally on this third spin, he lands it in the 23 pocket -- another five pockets away. The dealer's signature here would be five. Of course, three spins of the wheel is not enough to determine without a doubt that a dealer has a signature, but for purposes of a glaring example it is sufficient. Since the last number that hit was 23, we would now bet on 9 -- five pockets away. In the best of all possible worlds, the dealer would again spin the ball in such a way that it would land in our 9 -- five pockets away.

In the real world, as opposed to the world of our roulette dreams, we would never see a perfect signature. What we would want to find is a dealer who places the ball more than a third of the time within a 12 pocket grouping an average distance away. Let us say that the dealer is able to hit a 12 number grouping, one half of the time. In this way, we would bet those 12 numbers (12 units), lose half the time (-12 units), win half the time because one of our 12 numbers hit (which means we lose 11 units on the numbers that didn't hit) but win 35 units on the number that did hit for a net win of 24 units (35-11 = 24). Therefore, in two spins we are ahead 12 units or six units per spin. We would soon own the casino. Naturally, we would take any kind of win, even one unit per spin. Thus, if the dealer were able to hit our 12 pockets three times every eight spins we would average 1.5 units per spin as a win (lose 12, lose 12, lose 12, lose 12, lose 12, win 35-11, win 35-11, win 35-11 = 12 units = +1.5 units per spin).

The dealer signature should be pronounced enough to be noticed relatively fast -- it should be the John Hancock of roulette, readily noticeable on a first reading! [A great new book is out that goes a long way towards proving the existence of dealers who can change the game by their spins. It's Christopher Pawlicki's Get the Edge at Roulette: How to Predict Where the Ball Will Land! Check it out on Amazon.com.]