Readers Write

Dear Frank:

I'm writing in regards to the craps system you swear by and have published in several books. Back in August I purchased one of your books detailing the system in an attempt to find a solid betting method for my then upcoming trip to Vegas. I have only been playing craps for about a year, but in that time I have spent hundreds of hours studying the game to establish a mathmetical method of betting to reduce my losses to a minimum with maximum playing time. Upon initial study of the Supersystem and the 5-Count, I ran a few small simulations and determined the system may just do the trick.

To just quickly commend you, the system worked great. Most sessions in Vegas were positive and the overall results were well in the black. However, being a scientist by profession and knowledgeable about statistics, I began to wonder why the system worked and whether it work long term. I have generated a hypothesis on the method and have launched a more complex study on the method to determine the overall effectiveness of it. Based on my small studies, I have begun to think the system my actually be a positive expectation bet. This sounds crazy because craps is a negative expectation game, but based on a few priciples of second order randomness and applying the theory to an infinite number of rolls, the possibility is truly there.

Now, after this longwinded intro, my question is this: Has anyone ever run computer simulations on the 5-Count and Supersystem? I unfortunately do not have the ability to program a computer to do this, so my studies are painstakingly long. If anyone knows someone who has run a computer simulation, or knows someone who could, I would greatly appreciate the information.

Thanks,

Brad
Chelmsford, MA

Dear Brad:

As far as I know, no computer program has yet been created that can duplicate the 5-Count as we use it in the casino. Nor has any detailed mathematical study been done of it. However, in the next couple of years that will change. Donald Catlin, Chance and Circumstance magazine's "Easy as Pi!" math columnist and University of Massachusetts professor of mathematics, and I are discussing a collaboration to explore the math behind the 5-Count.

Traditional gaming math would not see any advantage to using the 5-Count except for the decrease in risk-per-hour (since you aren't betting on every shooter). My experience, the Captain's experience, and the experience of thousands of craps players who have been using the 5-Count methods of the Captain's seem to support the idea that there's more to real-world craps than we have traditionally thought. Perhaps it is some combination of "rhythmic rollers" -- those individuals who are capable of controlling the dice to offset the house edge -- and the 5-Count (thus avoiding those shooters who seven out early) that allows us to win over an extended period of time.

Right now I'm working on a new book titled Forever Craps where I am creating a method of play that will give us an even better shot at having an edge in a game where the math says you can't have an edge. Some might say that my advocacy of the 5-Count and the Captain's ideas are the gaming equivalent of tilting at windmills. Maybe...but that windmill over there looks suspiciously like a dragon to me and I know it can be slain!

All the best in and out of the casinos.

Frank Scoblete

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