Readers Write

Dear Frank,

Let me state this first. I do not have the time to learn card counting. Gambling is a hobby for me, not a vocation. Having said that, I have always been interested in progressive betting. I have read Dahl, Patrick, and now Thomason's recent addition to progressive betting philosophy.

I enjoy practicing blackjack on my home computer, and I have made some interesting observations. I tend to win money with progressive betting when the Hi-Lo count is negative. How is this possible? Is there any additional studies on this phenomenon to see how if it holds up for "long term" play? I practice the style advocated by John Patrick, i.e. aggressive splitting and double-downs, with frequent surrenders. Thanks for the web site and your writings. They really give the barnacles a fighting chance against the casinos.

Barnacle Tom

Dear Tom:

It is a fact that as the count is "going down" more 10s and Aces are coming out of the deck which increases your chances of winning. By progressing your bet up, you might be betting into a winning situation. However, once the count "bottoms out" you'd find yourself losing since the small cards are now coming out. However, your losing would be for minimum amounts since the first loss would drop you back down to your minimum bet. That's my guess as to why you are experiencing wins as the count is low. You're probably losing more decisions but you are winning more big bets initially as the count plummets. In fact, any card counter who knew that the count was going to go from zero to minus 10 on the next round or two would increase his bet proportionately because all those juicy 10s and Aces were on their way!

I don't know of any study that definitively deals with this question but I do know that Walter Thomason found something similar in his data. There was some kind of correlation between declining counts and wins. But remember this, you never know when the count is "declining" and when it has "declined" -- so when you lose that one hand, you must drop to your lowest bet or you are betting into a losing situation for sure.

All the best in and out of the casinos!
Frank Scoblete

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