Readers Write

Dear Frank,

I consider your book Beat The Craps Out Of The Casinos as one of the better gambling books I have read. My strategy at the crap table these days is a modified 5-Count which is based on your book. My constructive criticism of the book is that the Supersystem is silly as Doey-Don't has a vig of nearly 3%.

On the bottom of page 23 of the book you correctly and wisely state there is is probably no way to consciously manipulate the dice in order to guarantee certain numbers coming up. Obviously you have changed your mind. Is there any empirical evidence to back up your change of opinion? I can only presume you have no mathematical or scientific reasoning for the change of heart. I eagerly await your comment.

Regards,
Jerry

Dear Jerry:

I recall being on the fence but leaning against the idea that people could control the dice in 1989-90 when I was writing Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos. However, in the intervening years too many observations have gotten in the way of my previous supposition that the math always prevails at craps.

1. I had to account for why the 5-Count seemed to work. Math says there shouldn't be any difference between the first roll of a shooter's time and the first roll after making the 5-Count; the probabilities are always the same. For most shooters this is probably the case. But for some it wasn't the case. These were the "rhythmic rollers" who seem to change the slightly negative game into a slightly positive game, enough so that I, and many others, have experienced long-term wins at craps utilizing the method. (I think I've reached the long run since I've been playing for 15 years and go at least 40-130 days per year to casinos.)

2. I now know more than a handful of people who are conscious "rhythmic rollers" -- that is, they have practiced their sets/deliveries and when they roll, they win. If you play with them, you win too. That is not to say every roll is epic for these individuals but, like a good hitter in baseball, they are serious threats to the casinos' pitching staff. You might have heard of Sharpshooter, and then there's "the arm" in AC, the Golden Arm in Vegas, and several other individuals who are just known by their real names.

3. Over the years I have worked on my roll and I have found that I am a winner when I roll. And since I play a lot, I roll a lot.

4. Don Catlin, a math professor and casino math expert who writes for my website and for my magazine, analyzed just how much "control" is needed to change the odds of the game to a positive -- and it wasn't very much.

My newest book, Forever Craps: The Five-Step Advantage-Play Method!, really goes into detail on the subject. So, yes, I have changed my mind.

As for the doey-don't, you can take it or leave it. Mathematically, it doesn't stack up to the Pass/Come, but, if a shooter is diminishing the appearance of the 7, it might be the preferred way to bet since the 7's appearance on the come-out is the core strength of the Pass/Come bet.

All the best in and out of the casinos!
Frank Scoblete

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