Profitable Dice Control

Dear Mike:

I'll take a crack at answering your questions.

1. What kind living can you expect to make if you achieve, say, a 6% edge, playing 20 hours a week with a $10,000 bankroll?

At a $10,000 bankroll, you are very limited - you have tremendous ups and downs in dice control and you don't want those downs to blow you away - so with that bankroll you would be making a pass line bet for $5 with double odds and a placement of the 6 and 8 for $12 each - a total of $39 (if the point is 6 or 8, you just bet those two numbers only).

You never place the 5 or 9, or 4 or 10 with such a limited bankroll. You can expect to win approximately $2.34 (give or take some cents) every time you get the dice. I'm assuming a 6 percent edge over the $39 dollars in total.

Obviously you don't win this consistently - sometimes you will have monster rolls (much more than a random roller will have: http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/worldrecords.php4) but you will also have plenty of point-seven-outs as well.

If you are playing at crowded tables, you will get the dice once an hour, assuming the average length of time is five minutes per shooter. At $2.34 per hour, you will win $46.80 per week. Again it will be a roller-coaster of ups and downs.

If you are playing at tables with one more shooter (which gives you a rest before going up again), you will win approximately $14 per hour (assuming you roll 1/2 hour for every hour you play and you do not bet on any random rollers). At this rate you will win $280 per week.

2. I know this is a "whatever" question, but I would do this course as an investment and so would like to know some ball park figures.

Don't be crazy. There are very few dice controllers who can actually make a living doing this - the stress is too great and in bad streaks your mind will play tremendous games with you. When you develop the skill that allows you to beat the casinos, the mental game becomes extremely important - and knowing your meals, rent/mortgage, electricity bills, car payments, Little Timmy's college fund, etc., are all riding on the line, can take you out of your game completely.

So my advice is make this an avocation, not a job. It's still an investment but one in a leisure time activity and not in an economic life or death struggle.

3. If you have what it takes to learn the method, how long does it take to get profitable if I practice 2 hours per day for 2 years? I know this is another how-long-is-a-piece-of-string question, but give us a ball park on other successful students.

If you have some talent, six months is about how long it will take you to get good enough to get an edge over the house. The first month after learning, you will work on your foundation (stance, set, grip, throw, etc.) - not even keeping any records. Then the next five months you will use the SRR (seven-to-rolls ratio) to establish whether you actually have an edge in practice. If your SRR is 1:6.3 or higher, you can go into the casino and give it a shot.

If you get that SRR up to 1:6.5 or higher, then you might want to use SmartCraps software to establish what kind of throw you really have and bet according to its recommendations.

If you have limited talent, it will take a year - or more. We have one couple who had a great struggle for two years - now they are two of the best shooters around because their discipline and practice paid off. But six months is a decent estimate. However, you must bet exactly as I am telling you. Play any other way and you will find yourself not winning what you should - even if you have a decent throw.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank Scoblete