Professional craps play and house edges

21 October 2014

By Frank Scoblete

FROM MARCEL: I have been attempting to become a professional craps player for about two years now. I started with your book, and then read everything I could. Then I set about getting in 3,000 practice throws using the eight steps to dice control from your YouTube videos. And now I am starting another run.

First let me say, what got me interested in this was a red-hot Fire Bet run I had just before my son's school started two years ago. I threw somewhere in the neighborhood of 48 rolls (perhaps more, I didn't use the chip count method then and was basically just a random ploppy at the time). I won $5,000.

The thing I noticed was that the three other people who won the $5 Fire Bet each won around $2,000 (or more) in addition to this. I only had about an additional $250. So ever since, I have been trying to revise my betting skills and abilities (I have trouble putting $200 on any one number, or leaving it there once it is established). It is a slow process, but seemed that my one particular strategy was working "fairly" over the past two years.

Here is what I did:

Parlayed the placed 6/8 four times and took it down when I hit a fifth time. Using the inverted 3V formation on the dice this seemed to happen for me at least once a night, so I often went home up (at least a little). But I noticed that my bankroll would also dwindle or disappear on bad nights with no way to effect a recovery other than taking down the bet before I sevened out, meaning that if I didn't, I ended up regretting not having the parlay in play. Typical, I know. I am not going to continue this strategy of betting for the above reasons.

My new plan:

I was wandering around the Internet and, although it is not the first time I have seen it, I am for the first time considering betting the Iron Cross. I know, I know... sucker bet to put money on the Field. Hear me out. I looked at the numbers and saw something interesting. The overall house edge for the entire bet is better than just the Field. Not just a little bit, a lot bit. Something like 2.83 percent house odds.

And that is including the 5 placement!

I did some "number crunching" and threw in two extra 6s or 8s and the odds drop to about 1.93 percent (house). Then I said, meh, what the heck, let's throw in two non 5/6/8/2/12 numbers — and the odds ended up being almost the same — but for the PLAYER (1.86 percent I think it was). I then said, well, what about the 2/12 double — and with the double payout and two extra of these in 38 numbers, I got 2.56 percent player advantage. It jumped to almost 4 percent when I put in two triple pay 12s (Toledo Hollywood pays triple on 12).

I was taken aback by this. It means that if I have an SRR of 6.33 I can get anywhere from a -1.93 percent to 4 percent advantage. So then I set about the doubles dice set instead of the inverted 3V.

My first 225 rolls showed some real promise — first 109 I was "up" about $250 (with a SRR of just 6.41). My second set (116) I was up a whapping $570 (crazy 8.93 SRR).

I intend to do some more set testing, but the immediate thing I recognize is that if I have any "normal" run of at least 6 numbers, even without a point, I will be ahead on a $10 bet scheme ($10 on 5, field, $12 on 6, 8). It puts $44 into play, which allows me about 8 immediate seven-outs (welcome to Hollywood Toledo Friday Night Ploppy Sessions, lol) before my $300 typical roll is expired.

If you would like to analyze this and tell me if I am doing anything wrong, I would appreciate the communication.

Also, I hope you realize the interesting thing regarding the Iron Cross — namely that it improves the odds of a 5 and field bet by at least 1.2 percent (more like 2.5 percent). So in that regard, it is perhaps unique in that it mitigates odds instead of adds to your chance of overall losses. In other words, it is a "safer way" to play the otherwise horrible Field bet. Seems so on the books anyway.


FRANK RESPONDS: First and foremost, forget about being a professional craps player. I know of only one team that ever really became full-time professionals. Treat dice play — even if you become a great dice controller — as an avocation. The stress of trying to make a living playing a game can get to your head and emotions — that will cripple your ability to shoot well. Trust me, I’ve been playing for over 25 years now.

Now to your ideas. Let me approach this in a roundabout way. If you make a Pass Line bet of $10, your expectation in a random game is to lose 14 cents. Now if you put 100x odds on the bet, your expectation is to lose 0.021 percent of your bet.

Wow!

Not really. You will lose the same 14 cents as the person just betting that $10 Pass Line bet. A smaller percent of a larger amount of money can be the exact same as a larger percent of a smaller amount of money.

Your strategy is doing the same thing. Yes, you are seeing a reduction in the overall house edge but your losses will be the same per wager as they would be normally. You will lose four percent on the 5. You will lose 5.5 percent on the Field; you will lose 1.52 percent on the 6 or 8 and so on. Yes, more bets are being made; a combined lower house edge is being seen, but the losses are the same percentages per bet as always.

Now, if you truly develop a controlled throw, then things will be different on certain bets. For your e-mail, I would be happy to send you either “Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!” or “Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players!” You choose. I will get whichever book you choose out to you ASAP.

All the best in and out of the casinos!