Pride Goes Before the Fall

3 January 2023

By Frank Scoblete

Confidence is a good thing. If you are a basketball player going into a big game and you have to cover their best player, then you need to know you can (and will) be successful at it. Or hitting that great pitcher on the other team; you can do it! Running through those big burly guys on the other football team? “Run, Forest, run!”

Go through any event in life where your effort makes a difference and your effort will make a difference. But there is a big “however” in the above scenario.

When it comes to casino gambling; no matter how you try (and short of being one of those extremely rare advantage players), the house will have the edge over you no matter what effort you think you are employing.

But I have noticed certain players who play (let me be kind here) terribly and they seem to have the greatest confidence in the world they have the strategies to beat the house.

I think of the craps players who calmly and confidently take out their bill folds, count out their many hundreds and arrogantly dump them on the layout. By the way, many violate one of the rules of craps by dumping their buy-in when the shooter is about to throw ‘dem bones. Often the dealers have to remind them that you can’t just throw your money on the table as the dice are being released by a shooter.

As soon as they get their chips, they start throwing them here and there, calling out various awful bets that they think will make them destroy the casino this session. Usually, the casino does not get destroyed. Bad bets will have bad results over even somewhat shorter periods of time than will good bets. And good bets will ultimately lose as well; a sad but true fact.

Still, good bets will tend to allow you to last longer as long as you don’t over bet your bankroll or make too many bets. This is especially true at craps and roulette where multiple wagers can be made simultaneously. Games with bonus options can also be deadly for a player’s bankroll.

Sometimes players just think that the more they bet, the more they will win. That could be true in a limited amount of time but can it last? No. Just ask any craps or roulette player who has suffered “the slings and arrow of outrageous” luck. If they are honest, they will affirm that they are in a hole so deep that they probably can never claw their way out from it.

The longer they have played their games – months, years, decades – the worse it probably is for them. I don’t care how confidently they take out their buy ins or walk to the cage to cash in, their fate is usually sealed for them.

Pride does go before the fall. This is a truism from the earliest human literature, right up to the individuals who make poor decisions that they think are right decisions. I guess one of the worst things is to be proud of what you are doing when what you are doing is wrong.

Okay, I’ll say it flat out: you can’t beat the casino games in the long run; we know that (don’t we?). But an effort on the part of given players to learn the best strategies to play their favorite games can certainly make a difference in how much they lose and how much joy the game gives them.

I do sometimes wonder why the overly proud players, the overly proud awful players that is, brag about how bad they have been for their playing careers. They have no idea of what they are doing in reality. Here are some quotes from some of them.

“I’ve been playing craps for forty years and let me tell you; those bets you advocate are ridiculous. You can’t beat the casino making Pass Line and Come bets. You have to jump on the proposition bets.” (My mentor, the Captain of craps, called those bets Crazy Crapper bets – and they sure are!)

“The more numbers you bet straight up at roulette, the bigger your wins will be over time.” (Not really.)

“If a slot machine has been cold, it is going to get hot soon.” (Fatal last words.)

“I put all my money on number 17 because that number hits the most frequently of all the numbers in roulette and I also put money on 15, 16, 18 and 19 because those numbers are right next to 17.” (They aren’t. They are only right next to 17 on the layout, not on the actual wheel.)

“In blackjack, you never hit a 16 when the dealer is showing a 7. It is the wrong play. Also, don’t split your 8s because that is a bad play.” (No, they are the right plays.)

“If the Tie bet hasn’t shown in a while, it is due at mini-baccarat. Jump on it because it is going to hit soon. You can make some decent money on that bet.” (Not really. The house edge on that bet is monumental. Of course, the house will make some decent money on that bet.)

Oh, there are countless strong opinions about how to play casino games; many of them wrong-headed. I know the poor players have as much confidence in their strategies as the good players. Just don’t listen to them

All the best in an out of the casinos!

Frank Scoblete’s web site is www.frankscoblete.com. His books are available from Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Kindle, e-books, libraries and at bookstores.