Placing the 4 versus come betting

7 July 2015

By Frank Scoblete

FROM MARK: On a recent trip to Atlantic City I was playing $10 on the pass line with $100 odds. When the 4 was the point my friend said I was better off placing the 4 for $110 then playing the pass line.

His logic was when the point hits you won $10 on the front and $200 on the back for a win of $210. He said if you place the 4 for $110 and it hits and you come down you win 214.

Which is the better play and is he correct? His logic seems pretty strong on this matter. It seems you do make more money doing it his way.

What do you think?

FRANK RESPONDS: Your friend is kind of right but mostly wrong -- in fact, you might make the case that he is drastically wrong.

Here’s why:

When you place a pass line bet, you immediately have the chance to win eight times while only losing four times. That’s a two-to-one edge for you. Meaning $40 in your pocket on a $10 pass line bet.

The person placing the 4 for $110 is facing a 6.67 percent house edge on his money right off the bat. That’s a giant edge against the player. Over time, his expected loss is $7.34 per bet for his betting strategy. Your betting strategy for a $10 pass line bet will lose you 14 cents. That is quite a big difference.

Now, your friend does make a good point in recommending taking down the place bet of the 4 if it hits. Then he actually gets to keep the money he just won. Except he will make this bet again (unless he quits playing forevermore) so in reality the house edge will bring him down no matter whether he takes his bet down or leaves it up. (Taking it down will extend his time at the tables which I agree is a good thing. That’s where your friend is right.)

By the way, here is a good piece of advice for your 4-friend; tell him to buy the 4 for $115, paying a $5 commission. He will win $230 - $5 for a total win of $225. This bet is allowed in Atlantic City. It isn’t a great bet but it is better than merely placing the 4 for $110.

So here is the bottom line, Mark: Do you prefer facing a house edge of 6.67 percent on the placement of the 4 or one of 1.41 percent using the pass line? That 6.67 percent is almost five times the house edge on the pass line.

So go with the math!

For your letter I am sending you a copy of my book “The Virgin Kiss.”

Frank Scoblete’s new book is “I Am a Dice Controller: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Craps.” Available from Amazon.com, Kindle and at your local bookstores.