Pass up the Captain's craps Supersystem

26 February 2013

By Frank Scoblete

Dear Frank:

I was playing craps in wheeling W.V. where there was a gentleman playing who was a local (the dealers called him by name). He was playing craps and on the come-out roll he placed a pass line bet and a don't-pass bet. Once the point was established he would pick one of the bets up and place it as odds bet on the other. Is this a local thing or is this allowable in all casinos? That would be an advantage to the player depending on the point established.

John R.

Dear John:

There is a betting method that the Captain used to advocate that I wrote about over 23 years ago in my first book “Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos” (http://tinyurl.com/avafam9) called “The Supersystem.” At the time I (mistakenly) thought this was a great way to play. The Captain was the greatest craps player of all time but in “The Supersystem” I believe he made a mistake. This system is sometimes called the “Doey-Don’t.”

The bets do not cancel themselves out as you suggest. The come-out roll while favoring the pass-line bettor disfavors the don’t-pass player far more. Watch: You bet $10 on the pass and don’t-pass and a 12 is rolled. You lose on the pass but you do not win on the don’t-pass, there is no decision. That no-decision means there is no canceling out.

Put strictly in math terms, the don’t-pass will give the casino a 1.4 percent edge and the pass-line will give the casino a fraction more of an edge. You can’t escape this. So $10 on the pass loses 14 cents; while a don’t-pass bet will lose about the same 14 cents. That’s a loss of 28 cents overall.

Therefore the player is much better off simply making a pass-line or don’t-pass bet for $10, not both.

Once a point is established, however, he cannot take down the pass-line bet so he was probably only taking down the don’t-pass bet and that would be a disaster since the house edge on the don’t-pass on the come-out is 8 to 3, almost 38 percent! Not a good idea at all.

For your great letter, I am sending you a free copy of my new book "Casino Conquest: How to Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games" (http://tinyurl.com/a4ndzv8). If I use any reader's letter in my column I will send you a free copy of my latest book.

Frank


Hi Frank,

In playing craps on the don't-come, if a person plays $50 on don't come, after the come out role, say it is a $10 game puts $50 on the 10 to "insure" your bet you are a winner every time, either you break even or win! I would like your thoughts on playing this way.

Thanks,
M.

Dear M:

The easiest way to handle this is to realize that each of your bets has a separate house edge and they do not cancel each other out. If you bet $50 on the 10 it comes in with a house edge of either 6.67 percent (if you don’t buy it) or over 3 percent (if you buy paying the commission on it whether it wins or loses) or 1.3 percent (if you buy it and only pay the commission on the win).

The $50 don’t come does not protect anything. It is at risk on the very first roll. It can lose on the 7 or 11 (that’s eight ways to lose) and it only wins on three numbers (the 2 and 3). Once the number is established trying to protect your don’t-come bet does not protect anything – it just increases the house edge on you.

For your great letter, I am sending you a free copy of my new book “Casino Conquest: How to Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games” (http://tinyurl.com/a4ndzv8). If I use any reader's letter in my column I will send you a free copy of my latest book.

Frank