More Play the Better?

15 August 2021

By Frank Scoblete

QUESTION: Now here is what I don’t understand. If you play very little on the machines then you probably aren’t going to win much. You might get lucky but that would be rare. However, the reverse must be certainly true. The more you play the better the chances that you will have winnings, many winnings. If I go to the casino and play five machines all night, don’t I have a better chance of coming out ahead?

ANSWER: Yes and no. The “yes” is that the more you play the more the chances are that you will have more winning hits. The “no” is that those hits don’t mean you are ahead or that you have beaten the game. Indeed, those “wins” will signal that you have probably lost a lot more than you would have lost had you just played one machine – playing that machine slowly too.

Let us say that the casino has a 10 percent edge on each machine. You will play for four hours and put in three dollars for every decision. You play 100 decisions an hour which is 400 decisions per four hours of play. You therefore put through $300 per hour. With a 10 percent edge the expectation is you will lose $30 per hour. You will have some hits in that hour but over time the casino will extract (about) $30 from you. Total loss would be $120 for four hours of play.

Now you play five machines. Just multiply five of the above numbers. You’d put through $1500 per hour. The expectation? A loss of $150 per hour. Your total expectation for the four hours would therefore be a loss of $600.

Of course, you would experience more “hits” but those hits will not in any way give you a positive expectation at the game.

It would be possible that some large hits in any given session or sessions could mean you are ahead of the game but generally even with those you can’t overcome the expectation of your economic future. The more you play, the better chance you will be behind. The less you play (meaning fewer machines), the better chance you will not get clobbered.

QUESTION: Why are the casinos so greedy? It used to be that you could find plenty of $2, $3, and $5 games, even on the weekends. Now? Forget about it. You’d be lucky to find a $10 game most weekends and that would be on only one table. Greed is NOT good. Or do you think greed is good?

ANSWER: Inflation has certainly gotten rid of those $2 and $3 games. Same with most $5 games at the bigger casinos. I guess you could say “it is what the market will bear.” If no one played more expensive minimums then the casinos would have to lower those minimums. Or the casinos could go out of business because they can’t keep the lights on!

I do wonder how the average working man or woman can afford those $25 and $100 games. There must be a lot of people making darn good money to do so.

Are the casinos greedy? No more so than any other business.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank’s web site is www.frankscoblete.com. His books are available on Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Kindle, e-books, libraries and at bookstores.