Keeping it close is the best bet

23 January 2018

By Frank Scoblete

Every craps player has his or her own philosophy of play. Some wild action players look to make as much money from each bet as possible. They will bet proposition bets such as the any seven, individual numbers such as 2, 3, 11 and 12, the horn and the like.

My mentor, the late Captain of craps, the man I wrote about in my latest book I Am a Dice Controller, called all proposition bets “crazy crapper bets” and with good reason; the chances of keeping the game a close contest between the player and the casino was a longshot indeed.

Still, wild action craps players evidently enjoy their style of play or they wouldn’t do it.

The middle road for craps players would be those who make good bets mixed in with a somewhat smaller reliance on those longshot proposition bets. They will bet the Pass Line or Don’t Pass, take or give the odds but then add the whirl, the C&E, the hardways, among many others. They too want to experience the joy or sorrow of taking a bigger chance with their cash in order to make more money should luck favor them.

A word about luck is needed here: Luck is what the players are hoping for but in truth, the casinos do not rely on luck to win. They have structured their craps games to favor themselves by making payoffs on bets not reflect the true odds (placing numbers and propositions) or by creating bets that the casino wins a greater percentage of the time (Pass and Don’t Pass bets).

Given some long-time play by any individual craps player, the casino stands to grind that individual down. And “longtime” in craps is not all that long when you are making wild or semi-wild playing decisions. Bets with high house edges reduce the actual “time” in longtime.

The best bets, based on the true criteria for giving one a decent shot at holding one’s own against the house, are the pass line and come bets with odds for rightside players and the don’t pass and don’t come bets with odds.

Now, I do know that many craps players don’t think the good bets are thrilling enough. I can understand that as most casino gamblers are thrill seekers, but making a pass line or come bet that has a house edge of 1.41 percent (translates into a loss of $1.41 per $100 wagered) gives you a better shot at a win than making an any seven bet that comes in with a crippling house edge of 16.67% – an expected loss of $16.67 for every $100 wagered.

Given the math of craps, the best bets are the lowest house edge bets. I do not see any reason for debate about that fact – and it is a fact. The math dictates the game and that dictate becomes more and more obvious the more and more a player plays.

So here are two players explaining their strategies; guess which one I agree with?

JAMES: I play it safe in my life with my job, with my retirement finances but when I make my monthly trips to the casino I just want to let it all hang out. Craps is my game and I really get caught up in it. Before I go to the casino I think to myself, “Play it safe,” but when I start playing I get all caught up in the game and off to the races I go!

PETER: It took me many years before I woke up and started only making the best bets. I can’t believe I just threw my money out there with very little chance of winning. Now, I make just Pass Line and Come bets and place the odds. I have had many more winning nights. I don’t have too many spectacular wins as I did in the past but those spectacular wins ultimately came with a big cost on those “bad” bets.

Just like James and Peter, if you are a craps player, you do have to make the decision about how to bet. I agree that it is your money and you can bet it anyway you please. Still, Peter has the right attitude in my opinion. We all work hard to make money and we should not just throw it away on bets that really put us behind the eight ball.

Smart craps play is making the best bets. The math clearly dictates that.


Visit Frank’s website at www.frankscoblete.com. Frank’s latest books are I Am a Dice Controller: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Craps, Confessions of a Wayward Catholic and I Am a Card Counter: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Blackjack. Available from Amazon.com, Kindle, Barnes and Noble, and at bookstores.