How Advantage Players Get the Advantage

Dear Frank:

Many gambling games' outcomes are determined by random statistics. If an event is random, then shouldn't random sampling of that event be equivalent to extended play. So, the advantages that skilled players have in blackjack and craps are results that are determined over a long period of play, say 100,000 hands.

Why does my suggestion not apply to these random processes? Is the answer that there are small periods of "streaks" of good and bad hands that appear themselves at random times?

Thank you,
Sam

Dear Sam:

A small sampling of random numbers (or random decisions at gambling games) will not give you the true picture of randomness at work - instead it will look streaky in nature and many gamblers have fallen for the idea that such streakiness actually means the random games can be predicted. They can't. You can tell what went on in the past but not what will go on in the future.

Here is an example of randomness at work. You have 10 numbers - 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. In a random drawing with one billion of each number in a giant (and I mean giant) mixing bowl that continually shook all of them up all of the time, would they come up based on their probability? Would 1 come up one time, 2 come up one time, 3 come up one time, and so on, on the first drawing? Or would you see maybe 6 come up two or three times? Maybe 1 doesn't show at all. Maybe 0 doesn't show at all.

The drawing is random but the numbers don't come out based on their probability until we start to see hundreds of millions of picks and then we start to see the numbers heading towards (but rarely getting to) their probable one in ten outcome.

As far as good and bad streaks, there is really no such thing. If the house wins, it's good luck for the house and bad luck for the player. If the player wins, it's good luck for the player, bad luck for the house. Of course, the house will win in the long run in all random games because those games mathematically favor them either because the house wins more decisions or because the house short-changes your win on some decisions.

An advantage player such as a Golden Touch dice control shooter or a Golden Touch blackjack players is altering the game to favor him - but that favoring will not be seen in every session or succession of sessions - but over time it will.

For your excellent question I am giving you a free month on my private board at www.goldentouchcraps.com. There are over 5,000 members on this private board.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank Scoblete