Hot and Cold

19 October 2021

By Frank Scoblete

All casino playing deals with streaks. Here are some examples of the types of streaks players experience:

• Streaks of wins
• Streaks of losses
• Streaks of some wins and some losses interspersed
• Streaks of given numbers showing at games such as roulette or craps
• Streaks of individual propositions showing at roulette or craps
• Streaks of who the heck knows what’s happening

Certain games have more of this or that type of streak. Here are some examples and whether these streaks have any true meaning:

• Craps will have streaking numbers/propositions that hit out of all proportion to their probabilities.
• Truth: Random games will show all types of streaks and these streaks have no inherent meaning although our brains are structured to think they do.

• In roulette you will also see numbers and groups of numbers close by each other hitting.
• Truth: Again, randomness creates unpredictable streaks that have no inherent meaning for players. Such grouping of numbers is not unusual at all.

• Card games of all types will show winning and losing streaks. Truth? Same as above. No meaning.


• Slots will have many negative streaks since the win percentage on machines is just a small fraction of total decisions. So, a machine might hit for wins 10 percent of the time. It is programed to do this. Slot players are used to long losing streaks interrupted by sometimes rather big wins. Slot streaks usually deal with money won or lost over a given period of time.
• Truth: Slots are programed to select winners and losers by using a RNG, which is a random number generator. For all intents and purposes slot machines are random just as are table games.

• Blackjack: Streaks will occur in blackjack. These can be winning and losing streaks for players and dealers.
• Truth: Card counters can tell what cards remain in the unplayed deck(s) in terms of whether they are high cards or low cards. High cards favor the player, low cards favor the casino. While the shuffle randomizes the cards, counting the cards allows players to know favorable situations. Regular blackjack players do not know this information. There are very few card counters out there.

Overall, human beings are programmed by evolution to see meaning in happenings. Certainly, if a lion eats Og on one day and Gunno on another on a particular path it might be wise for the other tribesmen to avoid that path or bring reinforcements to take care of any cats that attack.

We use this same pattern recognition when we are playing random games. We see a streak of numbers and that streak brings meaning to our minds even though there is no meaning. This is such an overwhelming feeling that casino players play innumerable trending systems that claim to create wins. They don’t even though the players think they do.

Hot and cold streaks of all varieties litter the casino-playing landscape. I wouldn’t get wound up about them.

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank Scoblete’s web site is www.frankscoblete.com. His books are available at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, kindle, e-books and at bookstores.