Gambling's fads and facts

16 February 2016

By Frank Scoblete

An optimistic pessimist might conclude that there are as many gambling systems as there are gamblers in America. Some of these systems might actually give the player the edge, if that player has the discipline to learn and execute the system. Card counting would be one example.

But what are some of the others? Yours, perhaps? Here are a bunch — from “fad,” what the system’s believer thinks the system does, to “fact,” which is what the system actually does.

These have been adapted from e-mails and letters I have received.

FAD: I love to play more than one slot machine. Sometimes I play three right next to each other. I figure that one of the three will be a hot machine.

FACT: Yes, you are increasing your chances to get a big hit because you are playing three games at once, but the house edge is grinding away at three times more money so your expectation is to lose three times more money. You are better off playing one machine, thereby reducing the expected hit by a third.


FAD: In craps, certain numbers will repeat. I bet those numbers as I have found that numbers do repeat and so they are the numbers I am on. Repeating numbers are the way to win at craps and maybe all games.

FACT: Yours is the simplest positive trend-betting system out there. You bet the numbers that have repeated; simple enough. The problem with this system is that you cannot predict that any such a streak will continue or that betting these numbers will get you an edge over the casino. I’ll grant that it is a fun – but losing – way to bet. It is also the way many, many craps players will bet and lose their money to the house.


FAD: I love playing a method where you double your bet after a loss. I find that I win most of my sessions – actually I win almost all of my sessions. I think this must be the only winning system out there. I am amazed that more people have not stumbled on it as I did. I am sharing this with you to see if you ever heard of it before.

FACT: Just about every gambler has “stumbled” on this system. It is called the Martingale; which some experts believe is named after a tribe that went extinct because they played it against the anti-Martingale tribe which also went extinct.

You will indeed win almost all of your sessions but every so often you will double and double and double your bet until you hit the house limit, losing an amazing amount of money – an amount that will throw your bankroll into the red; maybe the deep, bloody red. Keep in mind you are doubling your bet to win that initial bet. It is one of the most dangerous systems out there.


FAD: Card counting does not work at blackjack. It is a ruse by the casinos to take your money by making you think you can win. It is all baloney if you ask me.

FACT: Casinos will prevent or sometimes ban card counters (and other advantage-players) from their premises for card counting. They don’t do this because card counting doesn’t work; they do it because card counting does work. You can mathematically analyze what type of edge a player can get by card counting. In short, it works.


Frank Scoblete’s new books are “I Am a Dice Controller: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Craps”; “Confessions of a Wayward Catholic” and “I Am a Card Counter: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Blackjack.” All available from Amazon.com, Kindle, Barnes and Noble, and at bookstores.