Betting the hard 4

Dear Frank:

I like to lay the 4 for $120 and the vig is $3. And $15 on a hard 4. I lose the $15 when a soft 4 is rolled. If I buy the hard 4 and lay the 4 for $120 and put $15 on a hard 4, if the soft 4 is rolled will I lose my lay of the 4 of $120 bet or will it stay on the table?

Casey

Dear Casey:

I am somewhat confused by your letter. If a 4 is rolled, you lose the lay bet – be it a hard 4 or a soft 4. Yes, a hard 4 will win on that hard 4 bet though. Okay, I am guessing we are only dealing with two bets then – a lay of the 4 and a buy of the hard 4.

Many players like to view bets as you do – each one relating in some way or other to every other one. That is not really the way to do it.

Think of the bets you discuss in your question and now figure they are being made by different players. Indeed, when you make a bet at a craps table it is always a separate game with the casino, as if different players are making these separate bets.

So let us take a look at the bets you are describing.

If the lay bet vig on the 4 is being paid for both wins and losses, then the house edge is 2.44%. For every $100 bet this way, your expectation is to lose $2.44.

Now if the vig is taken out only on the winning lay bet of the 4, then the house edge is reduced to 1.67%, not bad as house edges go. For every $100 bet this way, your expectation is to lose $1.67.

Your $15 bet on the hard 4 has a huge edge of 11.11% – a loss of $11.11 for every $100 bet on this proposition. Not good, Casey.

So your expectation is not too good based on these two bets. My advice would be to dump the hard 4 from your betting regimen.

Frank