Betting as a controlled shooter

Dear Frank:

As a controlled shooter, the object is to have our throws consistently last far beyond the statistical average.

Sometimes, smaller casinos might only have one craps table open, or else the only available table happens to be ice cold. With the advantage of being able to hit the desired point number almost at will, how about on the come-out roll, laying behind every number and setting the dice for all-sevens: 5-2 / 6-1?

I don't hear much about controlled shooting on the dark side, but there are times when I cannot get to the hot table, and with no other casino around, this might be the only choice I have.

Your comments, please.

David

Dear David:

Okay, take this in the spirit in which it is given — I am going to scold you. There is no such thing as a "cold table" and no such thing as a "hot table." The idea that a table is a continuous state of affairs, that it is "going good" or "going bad" as if the word "going" makes the table a steady state of affairs is the thinking of an amateur and of the gambler — not the thinking of a truly able controlled shooter such as the elite of Golden Touch Craps.

A table is just a table — whether people are playing at the table or whether the table is empty.

A table may have been hot and it may have been cold — but those designations have nothing to do with the now and nothing to do with the future, they only have to do with the past.

Now, controlled shooters are looking to change the probability of the game by their skill. The idea that most controlled shooters can "last far beyond the statistical average" depends on your definition of average — I am assuming you mean the random average of one seven for every six rolls (usually written as 1:6). If the controlled shooter has a one seven per 6.3 rolls (1:6.3), he has an edge on certain bets at the game, such as the placing of the 6 or 8. That shooter doesn't have an edge over the 4 or 10, or 5 or 9.

The idea that you can hit the desired point (or any number) almost at will is erroneous as well.

Most shooters are not getting very large edges at the game and with most betting strategies that they have they are still losers at the game. One pathetic ploppy has stated that if controlled shooters "see a horn" they should "bet a horn." That is, to put it mildly, idiocy. A bet such as the horn has a monstrous 12.5% house edge. Almost no controlled shooters can overcome that edge if we look forward in time as he has the dice. He may have hit some or many horn bets in the past but that does not translate into a long term ability to overcome that house edge. Golden Touch's statistical guru, Stickman, did a study of such betting and guess what? It doesn't work!

On the come-out roll, yes, your idea of setting for a seven is a good idea. if you have place bets of the 6 or 8 on the board, setting for the seven does two things for you: It gives you a chance to relax since you can't seven out on the come-out roll and you have a chance to make money with little pressure on you. Don't lay behind the numbers because then you have house edges to overcome. On the come-out you have a 2-to-1 edge and if you have some control over the dice that edge goes up as well.

Some controlled shooters will shoot for the Dark Side but it is not a preferred way to bet for most of them. I guess the feeling is that you are not a real part of the game. That feeling is wrong but strongly believed in.

For your excellent letter I am giving you a free 10-day subscription to my private, members-only website at www.goldentouchcraps.com. We have over 5,000 members on this private site and the conversations are interesting, educational and fun. Enjoy!

All the best in and out of the casinos!

Frank Scoblete