Bad advice that sounds good

11 July 2017

By Frank Scoblete

I am guessing that all casino players have some kind of philosophy of play. If they are blackjack players, they either play basic strategy (the computer-derived play of every player hand against every dealer up card), or a kind of basic strategy which they have mashed together with their own ideas, or some truly inventive, creative but ridiculous strategy that is, well, totally stupid.

I know that you will find bad advice on the internet, and even in magazines and books published by real publishers. And it is not just players and writers dishing out the bad advice — many dealers have no idea of the underlying math of the games from which they make their living. Here are some quotes from players about how to play certain games. At first some of this advice sounds good but in truth it is bad advice.

Player #1: “Never make the pass line bet at craps because you can’t take the bet down. You are stuck with it once it is on a number. You are much better off placing the numbers you want. Too many people obey what they read in books. Don’t be one of those.”

Player #2: “In blackjack it is stupid to hit a 12 against the dealer’s 2. Why would you do that? The dealer is in a bad position when she has a 12, why put yourself in such a position too? Just stand on these hands.”

Player #3: “The only way to win in casino gambling is to hit a streak and go with it. As you keep winning add money to your bets. You will never see someone win a lot who doesn’t raise his bets as he wins. I have seen many big winners and this is what they do. Get the money out there in hot streaks.”

Player #4: “You have to find slot machines that haven’t hit in a long time. They are due to hit because they are programmed to give out a certain amount of money and they can’t hold out forever. Play that cold machine because it is just waiting to get hot and give out money.”

Player #5: “On mini-baccarat, you want to take advantage of those payouts on the tie bet. You should wait 10 decisions, and if the tie hasn’t appeared, it is due. The payout is a lot for that bet.”

Player #6: “Blackjack is a sucker’s game. There really is no perfect strategy, so everyone is kind of just guessing about how to play. Just do what your gut tells you to do with your hands. Your gut is probably more right than any strategy card you buy in the gift shop. Why would a casino sell a real strategy to beat its own games? Who would believe something like that? But people actually do believe such nonsense, and they buy these strategy cards. My own strategy is better than any of those strategy cards.”

Player #7: “Hot numbers at craps stay hot. Bet them. Cold numbers stay cold. Now all of this is not all the time, but it is most of the time. I’ve been going to casinos for decades and I know what I am talking about.”

Do the above individuals really know what they are talking about? Or are they just saying stuff that might sound good but have no real basis in truth. I’ll leave it up to you decide.

[Read Frank Scoblete’s books I Am a Card Counter: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Blackjack, I Am a Dice Controller: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Craps and Confessions of a Wayward Catholic! All available from Amazon.com, on Kindle and electronic media, at Barnes and Noble, and at bookstores. Visit Frank’s website at www.frankscoblete.com.]