A reader takes me to task

18 April 2017

By Frank Scoblete

FROM: BIRDMAN: Mr. Scoblete I have been reading your articles for many years now, although I do not read books because books put me to sleep and what is the point anyway? I already know what I know. And I know you are wrong in your assumptions.

I now know this completely and utterly, you do not know what you’re talking about when it comes to blackjack and craps and all the other games that the casinos offer you to play. Your strategies are flawed.

I am sorry to hurt your feelings but the general public of gamblers must be made aware that you are giving them idiotic advice. Let me set you straight on some things. There are too many to handle in a letter but these are the most important ones.

You deny that there are trends to a game. How ridiculous! Anyone who has played the games knows there are trends. Trends are constantly happening but you claim they don’t. That is stupid if you don’t mind me being blunt. Have you ever seen the trends that occur in baccarat? They are outrageous! But you deny them.

Since there are trends you must bet with the trends. In blackjack if you have been getting high cards like picture cards then those will continue to come on the next round or two as streaks are inevitable. In craps if a number hits a lot then bet that number because it is hitting a lot, right? I know you are probably reading this with a dumb expression on your face. “Duh!”

And this math stuff is nonsense. The math of the games just doesn’t actually exist in the real world, it exists in the heads of people many of us call “math boyz.” By using math to understand the games you are going off in the wrong direction. You either win a bet or you lose a bet or you tie a bet but the math has nothing to do with it. You claim that in craps the Pass Line bet has a 1.41 percent house edge. Really? Really? Have you ever seen someone lose $1.41 cents when he bets $100? I figured that.

Gamblers should follow trends and ignore the math of the games. It is the only way to beat the casinos. Take it from some who knows! (And I don’t mean you.)

FRANK RESPONDS: Of course, trends exist in gambling, all kind of trends in all the games. The problem is this: While you know what trends occurred in the past, you cannot use this knowledge to decide (or guarantee) what will happen in the future. You could have a streak of “banks” at baccarat or nines coming up in a row at craps, but that doesn’t tell you that this streak will continue. Same holds for all games, even slots. In a random game, the future is random, and while you can know the percentages of what could happen (the casino knows all the percentages), this just tells you the math of the game. Oops, did I say math?

The casinos structure all their bets on the math, so why don't players use such information to make the best bets. Math rules! (Just ask the Math Boyz!)

In gambling the math speaks loudly. I suggest you listen to it . . . closely.

[Read Frank Scoblete’s books "Confessions of a Wayward Catholic," "I am a Dice Controller" and "I am a Card Counter." All are available on Amazon.com, Kindle, Barnes and Noble, and at bookstores. Visit Frank’s website at www.frankscoblete.com.]