Pentagon Mimicry?

TerrorBet.com has emerged in the wake of a failed pentagon attempt to establish a stock market-like gambling network to aid in the prediction of terrorist acts and major political events. The site, though it has no government sponsorship, seems to do essentially what the Defense Department's Policy Analysis Market would have done.

The basic scheme behind both the Pentagon's nixed proposal and TerrorBet's system is that users buy contracts that serve as wagers that a given event--such as a regime overthrow, an invasion or an assassination--will take place. The process is analogous to stock market trading, with contracts rising and falling in price depending upon a number of variables, similar to the way stock prices rise and fall according to a company’s plans or success.

The pentagon defended the creation of its Policy Analysis Market by claiming that markets have proven to be a very accurate method for predicting future events, and in fact are often better than expert predictions. So the purpose of a site like this is to forecast the likelihood of certain events. With the information gleaned from the terror market analysis, the U.S. could act accordingly to prevent undesirable acts from occurring.

According to the TerrorBet site, "Terror bets are not a cynical way to create markets to profit from; they are a bold attempt to seek new and effective methods to increase the security of all of us. By registering as a TerrorBet trader and participating in trading these markets, you could potentially play a unique role in helping to combat terrorism around the world."

The creators of the site, which don't appear to have any government affiliation, don't explain how this valuable information will land in the appropriate hands.

The TerrorBet.com Web site offers very little information about the company and only a single e-mail address as contact information. The operators did not immediately respond to an information request from Interactive Gaming News.

Company information aside, Terrorbet.com has begun taking registration for the system, which is scheduled for launch in December. Those who take advantage of pre-registration will not be subject to a registration fee and will receive 50 percent of all transactions and incur no additional fees for the year.