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Alan Krigman Gaming Guru - Page 8Why breaking up is hard to do... pairs, in blackjack, especially2 July 2012
Basic Strategy in blackjack is an exercise in optimization. It’s the set of decisions maximizing players’ statistically expected gains on favorable and minimizing expected setbacks on inauspicious hands. “Expected,” not in the sense of a specific amount anyone might gain or drop in a particular coup, but an average computed using probabilities with the laws of large numbers. ... (read more)
Of blind men, elephants, and pairs of eights against 10s at blackjack25 June 2012
Everybody knows the parable of the blind men and the elephant. One held the tail and thought the elephant was like a rope, another the ear and said it resembled a fan, and so on ... imagining a snake, a wall, a tree, and a spear. The upshot, as told by John Godfrey Saxe, was “Each in his own opinion,/Exceeding stiff and strong,/... ... (read more)
How do the casinos set the payoffs on their games?18 June 2012
Most casino aficionados have no idea how the bosses set the payoffs on the games. It’s a blend of science and art. The science is based on the math that links the probabilities associated with the results of a coup, the payoffs, and the edge or house advantage. The art involves judging what it takes to earn a profit and how much pain the traffic will bear. ... (read more)
Why and how edge at blackjack changes during the course of a shoe11 June 2012
Probabilities in most casino games don’t fluctuate from round to round. The chance a pair of dice will land with a total of five is four out of 36, regardless of what’s been thrown since the onset of recorded time. Analogously at double-zero roulette, the prospects the ball will come to rest in a red groove on the wheel are 18 out of 38 on every spin. ... (read more)
A rebate on losses gives players the edge... up to a point4 June 2012
An Atlantic City blackjack buff won $4 million from Caesars, $5 million from Borgata, and $6 million from Tropicana – all in about six months. His net was less, about $12 million, owing to $3 million in losing ventures along the way.
The player told the Press of Atlantic City that all three of the ... (read more)
Should you avoid keno just because the gurus rail against it?28 May 2012
In the standard version of casino keno, 20 numbers – called “spots” – are drawn from a set between 1 and 80. Players bet by marking as many choices as they wish – forming a “pick” – on a card showing all 80 possibilities. Some establishments limit pick sizes, for example between four and 10 numbers; other operators accept as few as one or as many as 15 or 20 selections. ... (read more)
The peril of faster action at the casino, and how to forestall it21 May 2012
Some casino aficionados find leisurely action tedious, if not boring, and prefer games that proceed at a rapid clip. Many, however, fail to recognize the cost inherent in a high decision rate.
Players’ fate follows from the joint influence of edge and volatility characteristic of every wager.
• Edge, a ... (read more)
Should you toss a buck on longshots with high house advantage?14 May 2012
Some slot machines and bonus side bets at table games have extremely high payoffs with correspondingly low probabilities of success. In this sense, the jackpots are longshots. However, the wagers aren’t simply all-or-nothing affairs. Rather, they generally offer ranges of payoffs with chances of success that rise as the amounts in question fall. ... (read more)
Why the slot machine return percentage you pay for isn't what you get7 May 2012
Payouts on slots for various results are emblazoned on the belly glasses or video screens of the machines. However, other than at video poker, the associated probabilities are normally kept under wraps. They’re assigned arbitrarily then stored in the internal computer chips. Worse, the values can’t be deduced from anything it’s feasible for the public to measure. ... (read more)
What are the chances of various wins and losses per hand at blackjack?30 April 2012
To unsophisticated casino patrons, gambling is gambling. They pay their money and take their shots. Usually, although not always, they know the payoffs they hope to obtain. This, because the amounts are posted in some way, in plain sight, on all machines and many tables.
More enlightened solid citizens ... (read more)
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