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Alan Krigman Gaming Guru - Page 6  Is it always best to double down in blackjack when Basic Strategy says to?19 November 2012
Experienced blackjack buffs know that the correct Basic Strategy choice for certain combinations of two-card totals and dealer up-cards is to double-down. That is, to match their original bets and draw one and only one additional card.
Few players, however, have a clue about the rationale for this dictum – except, perhaps, in vague terms such as they win more by doing so. ... (read more)
Why don't casino players avoid the high-edge games?12 November 2012
Everyone knows that casinos have a gambling edge or advantage over their patrons. On table games, this parameter is traditionally expressed as a percentage of the amount. On machines, this information is usually stated more benignly as the percentage returned to players. Edge and return are complementary – 2 percent edge is 98 percent return, 5 percent edge is 95 percent return, and so on. ... (read more)
Do wild cards give you a better chance to win at video poker?5 November 2012
Gambling gurus rate slots, video poker, and other machines by return percentage. This parameter is the fraction of the gross wager the law of probability says the casinos will give back to players as a whole. It arises because bets pay less than the odds players must overcome to win them.
Round-by-round, return percentage is essentially undetectable. ... (read more)
How good is your total against various dealer upcards at blackjack?29 October 2012
Say you’ve played out your own hand at blackjack. The dealer didn’t have a blackjack (or the round would have ended before it began), and you didn’t bust. You’re therefore at a moment of truth, anticipating how the dealer will fare.
If your total is 21, you’re in fine shape. You can’t lose. At worst, you can push. ... (read more)
How bet size and other factors affect your chances of extending your bankroll22 October 2012
Casino aficionados who are in the hole but not broke often don’t quit to cut their losses but stay in action, hoping to climb back out. The question therefore arises of gambling in a way that minimizes risk of going bust. The answer involves choosing what to play and – when there’s a choice – propositions on which to bet and/or strategies to follow, as well as the size bets to make. ... (read more)
Probability, Frequency, and Luck15 October 2012
Luck, good and bad, in casino gambling arises fundamentally from differences between the probabilities or expected rates of bets winning, losing, or pushing and the frequencies at which these outcomes actually occur. This, because payoffs for wins are set in advance based on the probabilities while bankroll changes are determined during the course of the action by the frequencies. ... (read more)
What Conditional Expectations Say About Betting the Odds at Craps8 October 2012
Many casino games proceed in stages. Bets on Pass at craps are illustrations. Prospects involve the chance of 1) winning or losing immediately – on the come-out roll – or establishing one or another of the box numbers as the point, and 2) subsequently winning or losing on the point. The chances combine to form the “joint probability” of success solid citizens face at the start of a coup. ... (read more)
For the faint of heart, here's another way to look at blackjack splits1 October 2012
Proper splitting of pairs in blackjack subtracts 0.4 percent from what would otherwise be the house advantage in the game. Overall, this benefit is less than that afforded by following Basic Strategy for standing on low totals, doubling down, and hitting soft 17s and 18s. Taken individually, however, splits are typically worth as much as or more than these options. ... (read more)
The law of large numbers and the anarchy of small samples24 September 2012
The statistical “law of large numbers” tells analysts their degree of confidence in anticipating the collective outcomes of many operations whose individual probabilities are known. Anarchy reigns, however, for the combined results of relatively few transactions. Which is why well managed casinos can foresee ... (read more)
Taking or laying Odds at craps lowers the edge, but does it really pay?17 September 2012
Pass and Come or Don’t Pass and Don’t Come are two-stage craps wagers. When a two, three, seven, 11, or 12 pops on the initial or “come-out” roll, these bets are resolved immediately. If a four, five, six, eight, nine, or 10 shows, the number becomes the “point” for subsequent rolls. The bet then wins if the shooter repeats the point and loses if a seven appears. ... (read more)
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