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Alan Krigman Gaming Guru - Page 33  Why the law of the maturity of chances seems to work but doesn't27 February 2007
Gamblers faring poorly sometimes turn to the thought – or the hope – that the more rounds they lose, the more they're due for a win. This idea gets an aura of authenticity with a technical name: the law of the maturity of chances. The principle is that whatever the probability of an event, the likelihood it'll occur repeatedly shrinks as the run stretches. ... (read more)
Why fewer decks at Blackjack are better, and when they're not13 February 2007
Most blackjack buffs have heard that the fewer the decks from which cards are dealt, the better the shot for players. So, all else being equal, single decks offer the best possible games.
It's true. Some people think only card counters benefit. Those who go this extra step do profit more than others. ... (read more)
Why strings of losses don't, yet do, better your chances30 January 2007
Gambling gurus say no matter how often you take a shot at winning a bet and fail, the chance on your next try stays the same. But common sense says the more you play, the higher the likelihood you'll score. Just as 10 lottery tickets give you a better chance than one, so wagering on a single number at roulette on 10 spins gives you a greater chance at winning than going for only a single coup. ... (read more)
What Makes "Stiffs" So Dangerous in Blackjack?23 January 2007
Player "stiffs" in blackjack are totals from 12 through 16. Anything lower can be hit without risking an immediate loss by exceeding 21. Standing on a stiff means losing unless the dealer busts, a roughly 28 percent chance across all upcards.
Totals of 17 or above likewise win if the dealer busts, but can also make money or at least push when the dealer reaches a safe harbor. ... (read more)
Playing it smart - Bets that oppose one another16 January 2007
Several table games offer bets that oppose one another. More often than you might imagine, players devise strategies combining these bets, confident they're putting one over on the casinos.
An example might be a "team" of two people who pretend to be strangers. One bets $25 on Red, the other $25 on Black in the same single-zero roulette game. ... (read more)
Can You Get an Edge at Craps by Controlling the Dice?2 January 2007
Edge in gambling depends on the offset between the chance of an event and the payoff when it happens. Normally, going into new rounds, offsets are such that the house has an advantage.
As an example, say you Place the four at craps for $10. Six combinations (1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 1-6) lose and three (1-3, 2-2, 3-1) win. ... (read more)
How much of Video Poker is Luck and how much Expertise?22 November 2006
Video poker is a combination of luck, expertise, and more luck. Luck helps in
the initial hand dealt. Expertise improves your prospects by dictating the cards
to hold or dump. Then, assuming you do draw, luck aids in productively replacing
your discards.
Initial hands can be ranked two ways. 1) By the chances you'll receive them. ... (read more)
You Needn't Overbet your Bankroll to Shave the Edge at Craps15 November 2006
Craps proficiency is predicated on more than just the names of all bets, how to
make them, rolls on which they win or lose, and what they pay. This knowledge
is "necessary but not sufficient."
One missing element is an understanding of bet sizing, absolutely as well as
in strategies involving progressing and regressing. ... (read more)
Players who Dislike Lay Bets May Be Making them without Knowing it8 November 2006
Most casino aficionados are averse to bets requiring more money at risk than they're
paid for a win, despite chances of joy exceeding those of sorrow. These wagers
are known as "lay" bets.
The $40 "no four" at craps is one such case. With the vigorish, this
bet puts a winner $19 ahead and sets a loser $41 back. ... (read more)
Hit Rate and the Popularity of Multi-Line Slot Machines1 November 2006
Multi-line slot machines have captured the fancy of the gambling public. In most
cases, they offer solid citizens essentially the same chance of fulfilling their
fantasies or going down the tubes as do traditional slots with comparable payout
structures when bet at equivalent levels. So, why the ... (read more)
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