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Alan Krigman Gaming Guru - Page 26Playing It Smart: Saving a buck at the casino21 October 2008
Sir William Thompson, aka Lord Kelvin, a 19th Century Scottish engineer, said, "When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: Why most casino gamblers finish sessions below average14 October 2008
Casinos profit on the advantage they have on every bet. This advantage is generally expressed as an edge, expected value, or return (sometimes called payback) percentage. Edge is the fraction of a bet the casino expects to earn, averaged over many trials. Expected value and return or payback percentage are the average fractions of bets players recoup after the edge is deducted. ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: Don't let good fortune delude you6 October 2008
Exit strategies in casino gambling are criteria players use in deciding when to quit. Reality isn't so simple that individuals can reasonably be expected to know exactly what they'll do when they leave home, then actually follow through at the tables or machines. Emotion enters the picture and, as Robert ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: Why the most likely result of your gambling isn't what you expect12 August 2008
Gambling gurus often rank wagers by their "expected value." It's a complementary measure of house advantage. When a casino has 2 percent edge, expected value is (100 - 2) or 98 percent of a bet. Think of it like this. At 2 percent edge, the bosses earn an average of 2 percent of the gross wager $0.02 on the dollar. ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: Does winning big in a casino prove you're a good gambler?5 August 2008
Ralph goes to a casino once a month. He starts in January with $1,000, his loss limit. He wins $1,000, then quits. To put some numbers on the probability of this scenario, pretend he plays blackjack using perfect Basic Strategy and bets uniformly at $50 per hand. These conditions give him 46 percent chance ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: Are you paid by how often you win, or by how much?21 July 2008
In "Fooled by Randomness" (Random House), Nassim Nicholas Taleb tells of a high-level meeting at a Wall Street brokerage. The honchos asked whether he thought the stock market would go up or down the following week. "Up," he replied. And, when pressed, predicted a strong probability it would do so about 70 percent. ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: How big of a bankroll do you need to play blackjack?14 July 2008
The bankroll needed for reasonable confidence in lasting through a blackjack session of desired duration depends on many factors. The strategy followed in deciding to hit, stand, split, or double on each hand is a factor, but it has less impact than most think.
More important are wagering tactics. ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: Can you learn more from the future than from the past?7 July 2008
The philosopher, George Santayana, famously said that those who cannot learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. More mundanely put, experience is the best teacher. Is it true?
In "Fooled by Randomness" (Random House), Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes that history only seems deterministic -- effect following from cause -- when viewed backwards in time. ... (read more)
Playing It Smart: How much money do you need to play roulette?23 June 2008
Roulette is straightforward and unintimidating. A greenhorn could watch for a few minutes then jump in and play with the best of 'em. And, depending on a person's preference, bets can be made individually or in combination over a range from those with lots of small payoffs to others having relatively few large returns.
... (read more)
Playing It Smart: How much money do you need to play video poker?16 June 2008
Sure. You can go to a casino flat broke, find a quarter on the floor, drop it into a slot machine, and enjoy a few hours of action on the way to a fortune. Back here on planet Earth, a 25-cent stake isn't apt to go very far. How much do you need to get a decent shot at staying in action and maybe emerging a winner?
The answer depends on many factors. ... (read more)
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