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Alan Krigman Gaming Guru - Page 16Should blackjack players say "yes" to insurance when the gurus say "no"?27 December 2010
Anybody who indulges in casino blackjack is, or should be, aware of the cardinal rule never to take insurance. A reasonable fraction of bettors flout this fiat when they have blackjacks themselves; they reason in qualitative "utility" parlance that they prefer the certainty of even money to a gamble between a 1.5-to-1 payoff and a push. ... (read more)
Can you win at video poker without hitting any biggies?20 December 2010
In some casino games, most notably those involving machines, a single bet can pay various amounts depending on the particular winning outcome of a coup. Jacks-or-better video poker is a good example. Pretend a sophisticated player follows the optimum hold-discard strategy for a particular version of this game with a high return percentage. ... (read more)
When 2 plus 2 don't equal 4, good data can yield bad conclusions13 December 2010
Once upon a time, in a land of glitz and money, a gambler named Ralph devised a way to win more often by switching bets based on patterns seen in past series of rounds. It applied to craps, baccarat, and roulette which involve wagers on different outcomes – such as Pass or Don't Pass, Player or Banker, and Red or Black in the respective games. ... (read more)
Betting "$32 across" in craps6 December 2010
Every so often, you'll notice a craps player who routinely avoids the Pass line and bets "32 across." This is actually a set of six Place bets: $5 each on four, five, nine, and 10 along with $6 each on six and eight. To be sure, the bet could also be in multiples of $32 – $64, $96, and so on. Technically, each number constitutes a separate wager and pays accordingly. ... (read more)
Should you flout Basic Strategy in blackjack – and, if so, when and why?29 November 2010
Even blackjack players who are a mite shaky on the fine points of Basic Strategy know "you're supposed to" double on an 11 facing anything except an ace, and on a 10 against anything but an ace or 10. The reason has to do with what the gurus call "expectation." Whichever option on a hand gives a bettor the ... (read more)
How to design a slot machine22 November 2010
Many gambling buffs consider slot machines among the great mysteries of the universe, shrouded in myth and guided by the unseen hand of fate. True, the math underlying the chances and returns on slots call for statistical expertise. And programming the computer chips takes some software skill. But the underlying concepts are simple. ... (read more)
How do the gurus get video poker expert strategy and should you follow it?15 November 2010
Pretend you're playing jacks-or-better video poker and get 10H-9H-7H-6S-2H as a starting hand. Do you dump the deuce and go for the inside straight, or toss the six and hope to make a flush? Most solid citizens would opt intuitively for the flush, mainly because it pays more than a straight. So-called "expert strategy" for the game confirms this as the better choice. ... (read more)
Probability and order in gambling8 November 2010
In many casino games, it's relatively simple to enumerate all possible outcomes of a coup and identify their associated probabilities. Such listings yield statistically-correct theoretical "cycles."
Double-zero roulette offers a readily-visualized illustration. The ball can finish in one of 38 equally likely grooves. ... (read more)
What can falling apples and feathers teach you about casino gambling?1 November 2010
The laws of science generally say – in effect – "do this to get that." The laws of probability tell you what outcomes that are possible and the prospects each will occur. Gamblers might prefer the second type was more like the first. Of course, in this case, there wouldn't be any gambling. Still, laws of the two kinds aren't as different as they may first seem. ... (read more)
How good is your chance of a run of modest profits?25 October 2010
Erudite gamblers know that prospects for successful sessions are greater, the more modest the earnings peaks at which they'll quit relative to the depths of the holes they're willing to dig trying. By setting win goals below loss limits, they can get a stronger shot at victory than defeat.
To pin some ... (read more)
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