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Best of Alan Krigman
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Gaming Guru
Whether Betting Progressions Work Depends on how "Work" Works13 February 2002
Bet sizing strategies were once of interest only to table players. The reason was that slot buffs traditionally bet either the minimum number of coins to stretch their budgets, or dropped the maximum to earn the bonuses on critical winning combinations. Now, there are machines that take from one to 90 nickels, $0.05 to $4.50, per round. On these, folks who set realistic goals at various levels, rather than shoot only for the moon and accept a crash back to earth if they miss, can apply the same principles. Effects of betting strategies on the likelihood of various session results depend on details of the game, propositions on which players bet when options are available, and the specific progressions employed. Definitive session profiles require each situation to be studied individually. And, answers would differ even for minor changes in conditions, such as whether "increasing a bet" meant raising it by one unit, doubling it, or whatever. Some hard figures can be placed on these soft generalizations by analyzing a specific situation. For this purpose, I used a computer to simulate 1,000 baccarat sessions for each approach, always betting on Player. Wagers started at $1. Flat betting stayed at $1. With the other options, wagers increased by $1 whenever the condition applied, and returned to $1 otherwise. The session ended after 200 rounds, or when the simulated loss exceeded $100. Some key differences among the approaches are evident from the accompanying table. Scale up to your own tier by multiplying the dollar values by your base bet size.
The bankroll swings characteristic of each strategy are another factor. To compare the simulated sessions by this criterion, I converted some statistical mumbo jumbo into a volatility index and arbitrarily set it at 1.0 for flat bets. On this basis, the volatility index came out to 2.3 for press on win, 2.5 for press on loss, 7.1 for press if ahead, and 2.9 for press if behind. Some players, in switching from flat to progressive betting, cut their initial wagers. This would make sense in the schemes evaluated, since the average bet is about $2 in progressions on wins or losses and "if ahead," and about $1.50 in "press if behind." If you halve your base bet to allow for this difference, divide the dollar values in the table and the volatility indices by two to estimate the impact. And, in deciding whether to adopt one betting strategy or another, recite this rhyme by the popular paragon of progressive poetry, the immortal Sumner A Ingmark: Weigh the profits of prevailing, Recent Articles
Best of Alan Krigman
Alan Krigman |
Alan Krigman |