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Best of Alan Krigman
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Gaming Guru
What's the Best Way to Use a Match Play Coupon?25 February 1997
Match play is usually only good at blackjack, pass or don't pass at craps, and player or banker at baccarat. And, you can't use it to make the minimum - say a $5 coupon and $5 cash in a $10 game. Most players bet their bogus bonus bucks as intended. They buy into a game and augment a normal wager with a coupon either at the getgo or when the inspiration hits. Maybe you don't want to do this. You're a slot player and got a coupon as an incentive to try the tables, but don't care to become involved. A casino insulted you by denying you your rightful comp and sent you a coupon to apologize, but you'll never give those bozos your business again. You cut a coupon out of an ad, but didn't like the looks of the joint when you walked in. You notice your coupon expires that day, but the bus leaves in 10 minutes so you haven't enough time to join a regular game. You have two principal possibilities. Best, find a solid citizen already playing at or above the level of your coupon, and ask whether you can add it to his or her bet. Then, win or lose, walk away. This is the first choice - playing wholly on the house's nickel. It's easy if you spot an acquaintance at a table. With a stranger, it takes chutzpah. Next best, match the coupon with your money and make the most promising single bet. All five options are attractive with match play, offering roughly 1-to-1 shots at winning 2-to-1. That is, chances are about 50-50 you'll win $2 for every $1 you root out of your fanny pack. But, which proposition is most propitious? On pass or don't pass at craps with no odds, or on player at baccarat, $10 of legal tender will become $30 in 49.3 percent of your matched plays. This gives your $10 an expected value of $14.79. On banker in a baccarat game with 5 percent commission, your $10 will become $29 in 50.7 percent of your matched plays. This means your $10 has an expected value of $14.70. Based on the expected value of the real money being wagered, matched bets on the line at craps and player at baccarat are equivalent and superior to banker at baccarat - by $0.09 for every $10 at risk. Based on probability of winning, the matched banker bet at baccarat outshines the others - by 1.4 percent. The optimum choice? I'd go for frequency, betting on banker. You might favor expectation, choosing player or either craps bet. That's why they make apples and oranges. Or as Sumner A Ingmark, the Chaucer of choice, put it: Recent Articles
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