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Never-Bust Blackjack Strategies Can Cost You Money27 April 1998
The "theory" behind never-bust blackjack goes like this. a) Stiffs are underdogs, stand or hit. b) Hitting, there's a good chance of busting. c) Standing, the player stays in the running and will win if the dealer exceeds 21. These statements are true. But they don't lead to the conclusion that never-bust blackjack is some secret the casino bosses would like to suppress. Not busting and getting the best chance of winning are horses of entirely different hues. The objective in blackjack is normally to maximize expected return on every bet; this is the criterion on which basic strategy is built. Departures from the standard may turn out serendipitously well on one or more individual hands, and may be ideal under specialized circumstances. But, in the long run, they cost bettors money. Expected effects are trickier to calculate if a solid citizen hits a stiff. Now, the math must account for the chances of the player as well as the dealer busting or ending with various point totals. The hands can push as well as win or lose. And starting value is significant. For instance, with all factors weighed, hitting 15 against a dealer's nine leads to an expected net loss of $470 per $1000 wagered - $70 milder than the $540 characteristic of standing. But starting with 13 against the nine leads to an expected net loss of $380 - a $160 gain over the $540 for standing. The following list shows the average cost of each stiff when players stand rather than hit against dealer sevens and above.
In a universe governed by probabilities, anything can happen on a particular trial. A blackjack player in the last gasp of a tournament, who must win and not push the final round to grab the grand prize, can hit a 20 against a 10-up and draw a miracle ace. But gambling typically involves repeated decisions, and is therefore an environment in which modest but relentless differences in probability can tip the balance between agony and ecstasy. Carried to the extreme, it's how casinos pay their bills. And it can work for players, not so evidently hand-to-hand but at the session level and certainly over the long term. Sumner A Ingmark, the Wordsworth of the wagering world, said it like this:
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