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Gaming Guru
How Betting Strategies Let You Balance Your Prospects29 November 1999
Many table players think that sizing bets based on past results is the key to gambling success. They're wrong in that outcomes averaged over many players, or for one bettor over many rounds, depend only on house edge and total amount wagered. They're right in that betting strategies affect the bankroll swings individuals are apt to experience during sessions of reasonable length. In general, betting uniformly best equalizes chances of nominal wins and losses. Raising bets when losing -- looking for recovery -- improves chances of modestly successful sessions but opens prospects of occasional larger penalties. And pressing when ahead -- hoping to catch hot streaks with "the house's money" -- offers outside chances at bigger scores while increasing the potential for small losses. To envision the effect, imagine flipping a coin four times and betting on each toss. Heads (H) wins even money and tails (T) loses. The game has no house advantage and players "expect" to break even. There are 16 possible heads-tails combinations. Say that three groups, each comprising 16 solid citizens, take part in different sessions of this game. Make believe the distribution of results proves to be statistically correct in every case. That is, each player gets one of the combinations. The following list shows how the players will fare for three betting modes. Players all start with $1. A risk-neutral group bets $1 flat. A risk-averse group doubles up after every loss and returns to $1 after a win. A risk-prone group doubles up after every win and returns to $1 after a loss. You can check my arithmetic yourself with pencil and paper. As a model, the sixth row -- (HHTT) -- will get (+1 +1 -1 -1) for a total of 0 betting flat, (+1 +1 -1 -2) for a total of -1 doubling after every loss, and (+1 +2 -4 -1) for a total of -2 doubling after every win.
Tallying these results shows the effects of the alternate strategies. Each group of 16 stalwarts broke even, as you can see by summing the separate columns. The distinctions arose in the numbers and amounts of wins and losses within the categories.
The moral of the story is that gamblers can select betting strategies consistent with their goals and the penalties they're willing to accept. Do you want to trade off moderate potential gains and losses? How about a good chance at a small win and a small prospect of getting stung? Maybe a long shot at a big payout and a strong likelihood of a small loss? Or somewhere in between? Choose accordingly, with these cases as guides. And, as you decide, ponder these pearls from the poet, Sumner A Ingmark: Is keeping win and loss in balance. Recent Articles
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