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Gaming Guru
Getting the Odds to Work for You at Blackjack11 August 1997
Adverse edge notwithstanding, players can easily get favorable odds of winning over the short term. And it's not even essential to go strictly "by the book" to achieve this happy state. In fact, it actually helps to violate a few rules of basic strategy. You can shift the odds to your side by grouping wagers into rounds comprising progressively-increasing bets. Each bet covers losses on previous hands in the round plus an allowance for a profit. After a win, or when you've lost the predetermined series, end the round and quit or begin again with your lowest bet. The accompanying table shows how odds favor the player starting at two hands, and rise sharply as rounds become longer. Here's how it works. I'll temporarily neglect doubles and splits. Maybe your goal is $10 profit on a four-hand round. Start with $10 and progress, as needed, to $20, $40, and $80. The table shows you have 92.4 percent chance, 12.1-to-1 odds, of earning $10 - more if you win with a 3-to-2 payoff for a blackjack. The downside is a small 7.6 percent chance you'll lose a hefty $150. The Devil may get its due if you take this concept too far. The table shows whopping 89.9-to-1 odds you'll win a seven-hand round. But if you're after $10, the sixth loss puts you $630 down and needing $640 for the final try. Big bucks for a $10 return. This may exceed what you care to risk. It may also top what the house will book at $10 games - a casino custom which keeps deep-pocketed players from fully exploiting techniques of this type. Doubles and splits assume extra meaning when you use progressive betting to manipulate odds. Either tactic can raise the ante for a round if it leads to hands which lose more than single bets. Proper splits likewise boost expected gain, or trim expected loss, but generally also raise the probability of a win or push. Exceptions are nine-nine versus dealer two through six. Stand in these cases; follow basic strategy for all other splits. The caveat: don't mistake odds for edge. They're not the same. Raising the odds for yourself leverages a strong shot at a small gain with a weak chance at a disproportionately greater loss. Still, if your aim is a modest profit and you have the discipline to quit when you're ahead, this approach may appeal to you. As the poet of parity, Sumner A Ingmark, poignantly prattled:
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